8 August 2026, 17:45 UTC

Deportivo Riestra vs Estudiantes La Plata Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Guillermo Laza, Buenos Aires
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Deportivo Riestra 2-0 Estudiantes La Plata.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Deportivo Riestra, 29% draw, 33% Estudiantes La Plata — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Deportivo Riestra at 38% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportivo Riestra99%Draw1%Estudiantes La Plata0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
S. Nunez
⚽M. Celiz (pen)
12'
A. Alonso
44'
C. Quintana
45+2'
53'
J. Sosa
M. Celiz
53'
60'
🔁E. Cetreout: B. Aguirre
60'
🔁V. Pieraniout: A. Castro
60'
🔁J. Sosaout: T. Palacios
61'
R. Funes Mori
🔁P. Monjeout: J. Goitia
66'
🔁B. Sanchezout: N. Watson
66'
🔁A. Diazout: T. Gonzalez
71'
⚽A. Alonsoassist: N. Watson
73'
🔁A. Alonsoout: G. Flores
76'
🔁P. Ramirezout: M. Bracamonte
77'
79'
🔁F. Fariasout: Perez Fabricio
79'
🔁J. Pereyraout: J. Burgos
90+2'
T. Palacios

Match stats — Deportivo Riestra vs Estudiantes La Plata

28%Possession72%
10Shots9
4On target1
2Corners0
1.8xG0.21

Goals against chances

Deportivo Riestra2 from 1.80 xGabout what the chances were worth
Estudiantes La Plata0 from 0.21 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo Riestra 5-4-1
  • 1I. ArceG
  • 15N. SansotreD
  • 24F. MinoD
  • 22C. PazD
  • 2C. QuintanaD
  • 5P. RamirezD
  • 10B. SanchezM
  • 8M. CelizM
  • 14P. MonjeM
  • 7A. AlonsoM
  • 11A. DiazF
Substitutes
  • 23M. ArzamendiaG
  • 3E. TovoD
  • 27J. GoitiaD
  • 36M. BracamonteD
  • 35A. StringaF
  • 6I. GariglioD
  • 21T. GonzalezF
  • 40G. ObredorM
  • 9N. BenegasF
Coach: Gustavo Benitez
Estudiantes La Plata 5-3-2
  • 1F. IacovichG
  • 40E. MancusoD
  • 35V. PieraniD
  • 4S. NunezD
  • 26R. Funes MoriD
  • 36J. PereyraD
  • 11F. FariasM
  • 8Gabriel NevesM
  • 7J. SosaM
  • 18E. CetreF
  • 19A. GaichF
Substitutes
  • 12R. BorzoneG
  • 28B. AguirreF
  • 20E. MezaD
  • 24T. PalaciosD
  • 27L. AlarioF
  • 22A. CastroM
  • 21L. PioviM
  • 10T. PalaciosM
  • 52B. KociubinskiM
Coach: Alexander Medina

Form going into Deportivo Riestra vs Estudiantes La Plata

Deportivo Riestra

  • L0-1Barracas Central2 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Defensa Y Justicia29 July 2026
  • W3-0Boca Juniors26 July 2026

Estudiantes La Plata

  • L0-1away to Boca Juniors5 August 2026
  • W3-0Defensa Y Justicia1 August 2026
  • L0-2Independiente26 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Deportivo Riestra9234810-29
11Estudiantes La Plata931599010

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo Riestra vs Estudiantes La Plata

  • 9 February 2026Estudiantes La Plata 1–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 20 May 2024Estudiantes La Plata 2–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.