8 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Gremio vs Sao Paulo Serie A prediction & result

Porto Alegre
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Gremio 2-1 Sao Paulo.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Gremio, 25% draw, 42% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sao Paulo at 42% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gremio95%Draw5%Sao Paulo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

M. Villasanti
45+5'
45'
⚽Marcos Antonioassist: Luciano
🔁J. Cabralout: F. Amuzu
46'
⚽Wallaceassist: Carlos Vinicius
48'
🔁J. Nardoniout: Dodi
54'
70'
🔁Danielzinhoout: D. Bobadilla
71'
🔁Ferreiraout: Cauly
75'
Luciano
77'
🔁Jonathan Calleriout: Andre Silva
🔁Carlos Viniciusout: M. Braithwaite
78'
Diego Caito
81'
⚽C. Pavon
86'
89'
🔁Wendellout: Victor Sa
89'
🔁Pablo Maiaout: G. Santana
Marlon
90+1'
90+2'
Andre Silva
Walter Kannemann
90+5'
90+5'
Robert Arboleda
🔁M. Villasantiout: Walter Kannemann
90+1'
🔁C. Pavonout: L. Perez
90+1'

Match stats — Gremio vs Sao Paulo

48%Possession52%
12Shots18
5On target5
7Corners7
1.62xG1.37

Goals against chances

Gremio2 from 1.62 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sao Paulo1 from 1.37 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gremio 4-1-4-1
  • 1WevertonG
  • 27Diego CaitoD
  • 6Gustavo MartinsD
  • 82WallaceD
  • 23MarlonD
  • 19E. NoriegaM
  • 7C. PavonM
  • 20M. VillasantiM
  • 5J. NardoniM
  • 77J. CabralM
  • 95Carlos ViniciusF
Substitutes
  • 12Gabriel GrandoG
  • 22M. BraithwaiteF
  • 14Marcos RochaD
  • 17DodiM
  • 9F. AmuzuF
  • 99J. EnamoradoF
  • 38Caio PaulistaD
  • 30Matheus NascimentoF
  • 4Walter KannemannD
Coach: Luis Castro
Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1
  • 23RafaelG
  • 19Lucas Ramon
  • 5Robert ArboledaD
  • 54Luis OsorioD
  • 18WendellD
  • 94DanielzinhoM
  • 29Pablo MaiaM
  • 8Marcos AntonioM
  • 10LucianoM
  • 11FerreiraM
  • 9Jonathan CalleriF
Substitutes
  • 31Carlos CoronelG
  • 20ButaD
  • 22D. DuarteD
  • 80CaulyM
  • 27Victor SaF
  • 17Andre SilvaF
  • 28NewtonM
  • 35SabinoD
  • 34P. dos SantosF
Coach: Junior Dorival

Form going into Gremio vs Sao Paulo

Gremio

  • D1-1Fluminense26 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Mirassol17 July 2026

Sao Paulo

  • D1-1away to Flamengo26 July 2026
  • L1-2Atletico Paranaense23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Gremio2777133038-828
12Sao Paulo2696113130+133

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gremio vs Sao Paulo

  • 12 February 2026Sao Paulo 2–0 GremioSerie A
  • 16 October 2025Gremio 2–0 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 18 May 2025Sao Paulo 2–1 GremioSerie A
  • 1 December 2024Gremio 2–1 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 17 July 2024Sao Paulo 1–0 GremioSerie A
  • 21 October 2023Sao Paulo 3–0 GremioSerie A

Leading scorers: Gremio and Sao Paulo

Gremio

  • Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists

Sao Paulo

  • Luciano8 goals2 assists
  • J. Calleri7 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.