Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Boca Juniors 1-1 Velez Sarsfield.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Boca Juniors, 19% draw, 19% Velez Sarsfield — fair odds of 1.61, 5.26 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Boca Juniors at 62% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. MonteroG
- 17L. LozanoD
- 2L. Di LolloD
- 32A. CostaD
- 3L. BlancoD
- 25S. AscacibarM
- 5L. ParedesM
- 18M. DelgadoM
- 19L. FloresF
- 16Miguel MerentielF
- 10T. ArandaF
- 12L. BreyG
- 11Angel RomeroF
- 21K. ZenonM
- 4J. FigalD
- 22S. VillaF
- 9M. GimenezF
- 27M. BraidaM
- 15W. H. Alarcon CepedaM
- 20A. VelascoM
- 1T. MarchioriG
- 4J. GarciaD
- 32T. SilveroD
- 2E. MammanaD
- 3E. GomezD
- 29R. AliendroM
- 8L. RobertoneM
- 11M. PellegriniM
- 10D. ValdesM
- 22M. LanziniM
- 15D. GodoyF
- 25F. VillalbaG
- 34A. BussoG
- 16L. MagallanD
- 5C. BaezaM
- 17A. VeronF
- 19L. CristaldoD
- 18S. EscobarD
- 47A. PereyraD
- 48L. FelerM
Form going into Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
- W1-0Estudiantes La Plata5 August 2026
- D2-2away to Newell's Old Boys2 August 2026
- L0-3away to Deportivo Riestra26 July 2026
Velez Sarsfield
- W1-0Independiente3 August 2026
- W3-1away to Talleres Cordoba30 July 2026
- W1-0Instituto Cordoba24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Boca Juniors | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield
- 9 February 2026Velez Sarsfield 2–1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 November 2024Boca Juniors 3–4 Velez SarsfieldCopa Argentina
- 14 June 2024Boca Juniors 1–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 February 2023Velez Sarsfield 1–2 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 October 2022Boca Juniors 1–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 April 2022Velez Sarsfield 0–0 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
- M. Merentiel6 goals2 assists
Velez Sarsfield
- M. Lanzini6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.