8 August 2026, 20:00 UTC

Tigre vs River Plate Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Buenos Aires
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Tigre 1-0 River Plate.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Tigre, 25% draw, 53% River Plate — fair odds of 4.55, 4.00 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts River Plate at 53% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tigre95%Draw5%River Plate0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁P. Martinezout: T. Serrago
4'
J. Elias
41'
45+4'
A. Moreno
N. Banegas
62'
🔁N. Banegasout: F. Alvarez
71'
🔁J. Eliasout: S. Gonzalez
71'
74'
T. Andrada
77'
🔁J. Freitasout: R. Borre
⚽I. Russoassist: J. Saralegui
78'
81'
L. Martinez Quarta
🔁S. Lopezout: J. Villalba
85'
🔁J. Saraleguiout: N. Dubersarsky
85'
85'
🔁T. Galvanout: L. Pereyra

Match stats — Tigre vs River Plate

32%Possession68%
5Shots9
2On target1
2Corners4
0.62xG0.38

Goals against chances

Tigre1 from 0.62 xGabout what the chances were worth
River Plate0 from 0.38 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Tigre 4-4-1-1
  • 12F. T. ZenobioG
  • 4V. MorenoD
  • 2J. LasoD
  • 20A. BarrionuevoD
  • 3N. BanegasD
  • 10J. SaraleguiM
  • 8M. GarayM
  • 30J. EliasM
  • 22S. LopezM
  • 28P. MartinezF
  • 29I. RussoF
Substitutes
  • 26L. MoralesG
  • 19A. OviedoF
  • 17G. SotoD
  • 32J. VillalbaD
  • 23G. RequenaD
  • 24F. AlvarezD
  • 21S. MedinaM
  • 25I. SubiabreF
  • 11T. SerragoM
Coach: Diego Dabove
River Plate 4-2-3-1
  • 41S. BeltranG
  • 29G. MontielD
  • 30N. OtamendiD
  • 28L. Martinez QuartaD
  • 3F. OrtegaD
  • 6A. MorenoM
  • 50T. AndradaM
  • 35J. FreitasM
  • 10A. CorreaM
  • 26T. GalvanM
  • 18L. BeltranF
Substitutes
  • 33E. CenturionG
  • 20G. GonzalezD
  • 24J. MezaM
  • 19R. BorreF
  • 15Fausto VeraM
  • 43V. LuceroM
  • 13L. RiveroD
  • 31F. GonzalezD
  • 25L. PereyraM
Coach: Eduardo Coudet

Form going into Tigre vs River Plate

Tigre

  • D0-0Belgrano Cordoba6 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Racing Club1 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto25 July 2026

River Plate

  • L0-1Rosario Central2 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Gimnasia La Plata29 July 2026
  • L0-1Barracas Central25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Tigre vs River Plate

  • 7 February 2026River Plate 1–4 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 2 June 2024River Plate 3–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 18 February 2023Tigre 0–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 27 August 2022Tigre 1–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 12 May 2022River Plate 1–2 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 7 April 2019River Plate 2–3 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Tigre and River Plate

Tigre

  • I. Russo7 goals3 assists
  • D. Romero7 goals2 assists

River Plate

  • S. Driussi6 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.