Remo vs Atletico Mineiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Remo 2-2 Atletico Mineiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Remo, 23% draw, 48% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 3.45, 4.35 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Mineiro at 48% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Remo vs Atletico Mineiro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 88Marcelo RangelG
- 2Matheus AlexandreD
- 13MarllonD
- 4Matheus FelipeD
- 77MaykD
- 28Ze WelisonM
- 14L. PiccoM
- 22Yago PikachuM
- 55Ze RicardoM
- 7JajaM
- 19Gabriel TaliariF
- 97IvanG
- 94Ygor VinhasG
- 8PatrickM
- 10JadersonF
- 11Alef MangaF
- 5Leo AndradeD
- 9Gabriel PovedaF
- 35Edson FernandoM
- 39Eduardo MeloF
- 22EversonG
- 23A. PreciadoD
- 4Ruan TressoldiD
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 36K. PasciniD
- 39M. CisseM
- 8MayconM
- 21A. FrancoM
- 27A. MindaF
- 19ReinierF
- 11BernardF
- 31RobertG
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 9M. CassierraF
- 2NatanaelD
- 30Victor HugoM
- 5AlexsanderM
- 92DuduF
- 13LyancoD
- 17Igor GomesM
Form going into Remo vs Atletico Mineiro
Remo
- L1-2away to Mirassol29 July 2026
- W2-0Vitoria26 July 2026
- L0-3away to Corinthians23 July 2026
Atletico Mineiro
- W2-1away to Palmeiras26 July 2026
- D1-1Bahia21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Remo | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 23 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 35 | 31 | +4 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Remo vs Atletico Mineiro
- 11 February 2026Atletico Mineiro 3–3 RemoSerie A
- 10 June 2021Atletico Mineiro 2–1 RemoCopa Do Brasil
- 2 June 2021Remo 0–2 Atletico MineiroCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Remo and Atletico Mineiro
Remo
- Jája Silva7 goals1 assists
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.