7 November 2026, 13:45 UTC

Caen vs Versailles Ligue 3 prediction & result

Caen
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Caen 1-0 Versailles.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Caen, 25% draw, 34% Versailles — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Caen at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Caen5%Draw90%Versailles5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
K. Rocha Santos
L. Milliner
45+2'
46'
🔁A. Zakharyanout: S. Guillaume
51'
R. Basque
F. Bomo
52'
🔁N. Babaiout: S. Mbaka
60'
🔁H. Saivetout: J. Kimboma
60'
🔁L. Millinerout: Z. Bagbema
60'
63'
🔁K. Rocha Santosout: S. Cara
72'
🔁J. Leborgneout: A. Ouchen
72'
🔁A. Kabambaout: C. Odzoumo
🔁F. Bomoout: I. Botella
73'
🔁D. Appiahout: H. Lamouliatte
85'
90'
🔁E. Goumotout: I. Aouad
🔁S. Mbakaout: M. Daffot
90'
90+3'
A. Ouchen
⚽F. El Khoumistiassist: S. Diakite
90+6'

Form going into Caen vs Versailles

Caen

Ligue 3

  • D2-2away to Le Puy Foot31 October 2026
  • W2-1La Roche VF15 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Fleury 913 October 2026
  • W3-2Rouen24 September 2026

Versailles

Ligue 3

  • W4-0Aubagne31 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos17 October 2026
  • W1-0Valenciennes3 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Villefranche26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Caen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Caen conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Caen had three goals or more.
  • Versailles won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Versailles scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Versailles had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Caen127142215+722
4Versailles127141914+522

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Caen vs Versailles

  • 30 January 2026Versailles 2–1 CaenLigue 3
  • 22 August 2025Caen 0–2 VersaillesLigue 3
  • 23 July 2022Caen 0–0 VersaillesFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

Caen beat Versailles 1–0. The model had made a win for Caen its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: F. El Khoumisti 90+6' for Caen.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Caen a 51.1% chance to finish in the top six: 57.8% after a win, 46.6% after a draw, 44.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.8%, 6.7 points higher than before the match.

For Versailles the question was the chance to win the league, 17.9% going in: 23.5% after a win, 16.5% after a draw, 13.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.5%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Caen v Versailles has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 45% / 25% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 25% / 34%: the biggest move is Caen's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Caen win41%▼ −4
  2. Draw25%=
  3. Versailles win34%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.