Gobelins vs La Roche VF Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Gobelins 0-1 La Roche VF.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Gobelins, 30% draw, 40% La Roche VF — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
La Roche VF at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Gobelins vs La Roche VF
Gobelins
Ligue 3
- D1-1away to Fleury 9131 October 2026
- W3-1Rouen17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Concarneau3 October 2026
- W1-0Bastia26 September 2026
La Roche VF
Ligue 3
- W2-0Bourg-en-bresse 0131 October 2026
- L1-2away to Caen15 October 2026
- W3-1Aubagne3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos26 September 2026
What these results say
- Gobelins scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Gobelins conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Gobelins.
- La Roche VF scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- La Roche VF won 3 of these 4 matches.
- La Roche VF conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Gobelins | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 16 |
| 1 | La Roche VF | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gobelins vs La Roche VF
- 9 March 2024Gobelins 2–0 La Roche VFNational 2 - Group B
- 6 October 2023La Roche VF 1–0 GobelinsNational 2 - Group B
The result against the call
La Roche VF won 1–0 at Gobelins. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for La Roche VF at 40%. The goal: M. Villette 19' for La Roche VF.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gobelins a 8.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.4% after a win, 7.4% after a draw, 10.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.8%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.
For La Roche VF the question was the chance to win the league, 26.1% going in: 30.9% after a win, 23.3% after a draw, 20.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.9%, 4.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.