7 November 2026, 13:45 UTC

Concarneau vs Fleury 91 Ligue 3 prediction & result

Stade Guy Piriou, Concarneau
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Concarneau 2-0 Fleury 91.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Concarneau, 28% draw, 34% Fleury 91 — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Concarneau at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Concarneau97%Draw3%Fleury 910%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Jannoassist: M. Picouleau
13'
L. Goujon
16'
21'
T. Thomas
37'
C. Khetir
37'
Y. Le Mehaute
38'
K. Farade
39'
H. Karamoko
G. Gbelle
41'
64'
🔁T. Plissonout: C. Cisse
64'
🔁Y. Verdierout: S. Anne
65'
🔁K. Faradeout: J. Rivas
🔁G. Gbelleout: F. Da Silva
65'
74'
🔁V. Lavigneout: N. Homssa
79'
🔁Y. Le Mehauteout: J. Tchouatcha
🔁K. Benabdelouahedout: A. Sidibe
79'
89'
C. Khetir
89'
C. Khetir
🔁M. Picouleauout: J. Varvat
90'
90+2'
J. Tchouatcha
⚽J. Varvatassist: J. Halby
90+4'

Form going into Concarneau vs Fleury 91

Concarneau

Ligue 3

  • L1-2away to Rouen31 October 2026
  • D1-1Bastia17 October 2026
  • W2-1Gobelins3 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Bourg-en-bresse 0126 September 2026

Fleury 91

Ligue 3

  • D1-1Gobelins31 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Bourg-en-bresse 0117 October 2026
  • W3-2Caen3 October 2026
  • L1-2Aubagne26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Concarneau scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Concarneau conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Concarneau.
  • Fleury 91 scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Fleury 91 conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Fleury 91.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Concarneau125521611+520
12Fleury 91124441715+216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Concarneau vs Fleury 91

  • 27 February 2026Fleury 91 0–4 ConcarneauLigue 3
  • 19 September 2025Concarneau 0–1 Fleury 91Ligue 3
  • 28 May 2016Fleury 91 0–0 ConcarneauNational 2 - Group D
  • 9 January 2016Concarneau 3–2 Fleury 91National 2 - Group D

The result against the call

Concarneau beat Fleury 91 2–0. The model had made a win for Concarneau its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: S. Janno 13' for Concarneau, J. Varvat 90+4' for Concarneau. Sent off: C. Khetir (Fleury 91) 89'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Concarneau a 13.5% chance to finish in the top six: 17.5% after a win, 12.3% after a draw, 8.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.5%, 4 points higher than before the match.

For Fleury 91 the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 40.6% going in: 47.5% after a win, 38.4% after a draw, 35.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.1%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.