Quevilly vs Orleans Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Quevilly 3-2 Orleans.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Quevilly, 28% draw, 30% Orleans — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Quevilly at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 16M. Silistrie
- 19Y. Gazzaoui
- 28M. Mukendi
- 26V. Theresin
- 18M. Hamdi
- 29R. Silva
- 7S. Come Ruiz
- 4A. Diaby
- 17D. Sarr
- 20G. Capuano
- 11D. Seck
- 40T. Viel
- 2M. Ros
- 5Y. Gaya
- 21N. Bouekou
- 8W. Tchimbembe
- 34B. El Kaddouri
- 22R. Rosa
- 1F. Faham
- 27M. Lemaitre
- 24I. Drame
- 5M. Sylla
- 3T. Ndicka Matam
- 6H. Aubourg
- 10G. Khous
- 20B. Dali-Amar
- 7M. Diako
- 19R. Legendre
- 26A. Ribeiro
- 40S. Moussima
- 4E. Balenga
- 14Y. Aouladzian
- 21L. Raillot
- 18S. Noireau-Dauriat
- 9M. Prunier
- 23J. Koembo
Form going into Quevilly vs Orleans
Quevilly
Ligue 3
- L1-3away to Cannes3 October 2026
- D1-1Amiens26 September 2026
Orleans
Ligue 3
- D1-1away to Bastia1 October 2026
- D0-0Cannes26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Quevilly | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 16 |
| 14 | Orleans | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Quevilly vs Orleans
- 24 April 2026Orleans 0–3 QuevillyLigue 3
- 5 December 2025Quevilly 0–1 OrleansLigue 3
- 28 March 2025Orleans 0–0 QuevillyLigue 3
- 2 November 2024Quevilly 1–1 OrleansLigue 3
- 15 March 2021Orleans 3–4 QuevillyLigue 3
The result against the call
Quevilly beat Orleans 3–2. The model had made a win for Quevilly its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: D. Seck 27' for Quevilly, R. Legendre (penalty) 40' for Orleans, G. Capuano 56' for Quevilly, M. Diako 70' for Orleans, Y. Gazzaoui 77' for Quevilly. Sent off: I. Drame (Orleans) 81'.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Quevilly a 9.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.9% after a win, 9.5% after a draw, 13.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.9%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.
For Orleans the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 7.4% going in: 4.3% after a win, 6.6% after a draw, 9.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.4%, 2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.