17 October 2026, 12:45 UTC

Concarneau vs Bastia Ligue 3 prediction & result

Stade Guy Piriou, Concarneau
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Concarneau 1-1 Bastia.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Concarneau, 30% draw, 36% Bastia — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bastia at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Concarneau3%Draw93%Bastia4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
G. Akueson
🔁G. Lafontaineout: K. Benabdelouahed
31'
50'
N. Douce
53'
C. Melieres
57'
⚽E. Garnier
⚽L. Goujon
62'
🔁B. Maconout: F. Da Silva
64'
🔁G. Gbelleout: L. Rosier
65'
70'
🔁C. Rodriguesout: M. Boumaaoui
70'
🔁H. Makalouout: A. Zaouai
F. Da Silva
80'
🔁L. Goujonout: A. Sidibe
81'
84'
🔁C. Melieresout: D. Djedje
90'
🔁N. Alebateout: M. Petrignani
90'
🔁E. Garnierout: D. Diarra
90+2'
M. Boumaaoui

Line-ups

Concarneau
  • 1V. Viot
  • 25G. Lafontaine
  • 6D. Seba
  • 24C. Divialle
  • 5B. Etcheverria
  • 26T. Sinquin
  • 8M. Picouleau
  • 23L. Goujon
  • 10G. Gbelle
  • 22B. Macon
  • 9S. Janno
Substitutes
  • 40P. Patron
  • 15D. Yatera
  • 2K. Benabdelouahed
  • 18F. Da Silva
  • 7J. Varvat
  • 17A. Sidibe
  • 14L. Rosier
Coach: Stephane Moulin
Bastia
  • 1T. De Percin
  • 20G. Akueson
  • 4A. Roncaglia
  • 35N. Douce
  • 6F. Fall
  • 13C. Melieres
  • 17J. Eickmayer
  • 23E. Garnier
  • 33N. Alebate
  • 3H. Makalou
  • 7C. Rodrigues
Substitutes
  • 16S. Contena
  • 25D. Diarra
  • 34D. Djedje
  • 28M. Petrignani
  • 10A. Zaouai
  • 29M. Boumaaoui
  • 14D. Tamba
Coach: Laurent Peyrelade

Form going into Concarneau vs Bastia

Concarneau

Ligue 3

  • W2-1Gobelins3 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Bourg-en-bresse 0126 September 2026

Bastia

Ligue 3

  • D1-1Orleans1 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Gobelins26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Concarneau125521611+520
13Bastia124351014-415

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Concarneau vs Bastia

  • 23 April 2024Bastia 2–0 ConcarneauLigue 2
  • 5 August 2023Concarneau 0–0 BastiaLigue 2
  • 5 March 2021Bastia 1–1 ConcarneauLigue 3
  • 2 October 2020Concarneau 1–1 BastiaLigue 3
  • 5 January 2019SC Bastia 4–4 ConcarneauCoupe de France

The result against the call

Concarneau and Bastia drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Bastia at 36% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: E. Garnier 57' for Bastia, L. Goujon 62' for Concarneau.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Concarneau a 10.6% chance to finish in the top four: 13.1% after a win, 9.8% after a draw, 7.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.8%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.

For Bastia the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 23.3% going in: 27.7% after a win, 23.0% after a draw, 17.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 23.0%.

Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.