17 October 2026, 12:45 UTC

Gobelins vs Rouen Ligue 3 prediction & result

Stade Charlety, Paris
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Gobelins 3-1 Rouen.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Gobelins, 30% draw, 45% Rouen — fair odds of 4.00, 3.33 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rouen at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gobelins99%Draw1%Rouen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
Z. Lamgahez
🔁E. Soumah-Abbadout: A. Sidibe
44'
46'
🔁G. Egnyout: E. Frebourg
⚽M. Guendezassist: N. Donat
49'
55'
⚽B. Camaraassist: N. Mbemba
A. Sidibe
58'
🔁E. Michutout: I. Camara
65'
🔁M. Guendezout: A. Amara
65'
⚽A. Amaraassist: N. Bernardino
66'
⚽J. Pohaassist: A. Amara
69'
70'
🔁N. Mbembaout: A. Toure
70'
🔁I. Karamokoout: S. Traore
80'
🔁S. Diabyout: J. Viana
80'
🔁M. Tchokounteout: W. Pacius
🔁N. Donatout: S. Misiatu
84'
🔁M. Adelaideout: L. Marthe
84'
I. Camara
90+6'

Line-ups

Gobelins
  • 30A. Temperton
  • 24N. Bernardino
  • 20J. Ayessa
  • 19I. Kone
  • 5J. Poha
  • 18E. Dode
  • 21M. Guendez
  • 29N. Donat
  • 22E. Michut
  • 25E. Soumah-Abbad
  • 14M. Adelaide
Substitutes
  • 16S. Bernard
  • 4C. Diedhiou
  • 26S. Misiatu
  • 6I. Camara
  • 13L. Marthe
  • 10A. Amara
  • 11A. Sidibe
Coach: Stephane Rossi
Rouen
  • 1A. Maraval
  • 5J. Gaspar
  • 15Z. Lamgahez
  • 22F. Mendy
  • 3M. Borne
  • 13B. Camara
  • 6N. Mbemba
  • 25S. Diaby
  • 8G. Egny
  • 10I. Karamoko
  • 9M. Tchokounte
Substitutes
  • 30D. Desprez
  • 4E. Frebourg
  • 12A. Toure
  • 17I. Samoura
  • 28W. Pacius
  • 21S. Traore
  • 29J. Viana
Coach: Regis Brouard

Form going into Gobelins vs Rouen

Gobelins

Ligue 3

  • L1-2away to Concarneau3 October 2026
  • W1-0Bastia26 September 2026

Rouen

Ligue 3

  • W2-0Bourg-en-bresse 013 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Caen24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Gobelins124441112-116
2Rouen12822229+1326

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gobelins vs Rouen

  • 20 March 2026Gobelins 0–0 RouenLigue 3
  • 17 October 2025Rouen 3–0 GobelinsLigue 3
  • 9 May 2025Rouen 2–2 GobelinsLigue 3
  • 17 January 2025Gobelins 1–0 RouenLigue 3
  • 11 January 2020Gobelins 1–2 RouenNational 2 - Group B

The result against the call

Gobelins beat Rouen 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Rouen at 45% and given a win for Gobelins 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Guendez 49' for Gobelins, B. Camara 55' for Rouen, A. Amara 66' for Gobelins, J. Poha 69' for Gobelins. Sent off: Z. Lamgahez (Rouen) 24'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gobelins a 30.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.2% after a win, 29.7% after a draw, 34.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.2%, 8.2 points lower than before the match.

For Rouen the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 70.3% going in: 74.8% after a win, 67.4% after a draw, 65.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 65.4%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Gobelins v Rouen has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 27% / 31% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 25% / 30% / 45%: the biggest move is Rouen's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Gobelins win25%▼ −2
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. Rouen win45%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.