Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Shams Azar Qazvin Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Esteghlal Khuzestan 2-0 Shams Azar Qazvin.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Esteghlal Khuzestan, 28% draw, 35% Shams Azar Qazvin — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Esteghlal Khuzestan at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 78M. A. Rezaei
- 75F. Jafari
- 23A. Farhadi
- 66M. Mehdizadeh
- 77M. Ahmadi
- 16A. Sharafi
- 44S. M. Ahle
- 7A. Rostami
- 12E. Sazegari
- 45O. Mohammadi
- 34J. Zergani
- 13M. Mousavi
- 6M. Sharifi
- 8H. Bouhamdan
- 15A. Karami
- 49A. Zarei
- 4M. Rezaei
- 30A. Taher
- 19A. Karami
- 2M. Nejadmehdi
- 48M. Sourgi
- 11M. Mamizadeh
- 86A. Nasiri
- 10A. Mohkamkar
- 16M. Mansouri
- 7R. Mohammadi
- 14A. Hosseinzadeh
- 3A. A. Chegini
- 99A. Zand
- 17M. Aghamohammadi
- 23S. M. Hosseini
Form going into Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Shams Azar Qazvin
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Persian Gulf Pro League
- L1-2away to Kheybar Khorramabad18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Gol Gohar8 October 2026
Shams Azar Qazvin
Persian Gulf Pro League
- D0-0Sepahan FC18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Paykan10 October 2026
- L2-3Gol Gohar10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Shams Azar Qazvin
- 18 January 2026Shams Azar Qazvin 0–0 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 19 August 2025Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–1 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
- 6 February 2025Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–0 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
- 13 September 2024Shams Azar Qazvin 2–2 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 15 February 2024Shams Azar Qazvin 0–0 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 9 August 2023Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–1 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
The result against the call
Esteghlal Khuzestan beat Shams Azar Qazvin 2–0. The model had made a win for Esteghlal Khuzestan its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: J. Zergani 62' for Esteghlal Khuzestan, M. Mousavi 87' for Esteghlal Khuzestan.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Esteghlal Khuzestan a 77.1% chance to finish in the bottom four: 55.7% after a win, 85.9% after a draw, 94.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.7%, 21.4 points lower than before the match.
For Shams Azar Qazvin the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 39.2% going in: 12.4% after a win, 36.8% after a draw, 65.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 65.3%, 26.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.