Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Austin 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Austin, 28% draw, 30% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Austin at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes
Austin
- W2-1away to Portland Timbers30 August 2026
- D1-1Philadelphia Union23 August 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
- D0-0away to Houston Dynamo30 August 2026
- L1-5Minnesota United FC23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Austin | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 29 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Austin and San Jose Earthquakes
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
San Jose Earthquakes
- P. Judd12 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.