Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Austin 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Austin, 28% draw, 30% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Austin at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. StuverG
- 3M. DeslerD
- 5O. SvatokD
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 30J. RosalesM
- 38E. TorresM
- 14B. SabovicM
- 17J. GallagherM
- 11F. TorresF
- 9B. VazquezF
- 24J. AlastueyF
- 12D. LasG
- 4B. Hines-IkeD
- 15J. BellD
- 23Z. KolmanicD
- 35M. DjordjevicD
- 6I. SanchezM
- 32M. BurtonM
- 21C. RamirezF
- 77P. PlachetaM
- 1A. GunnG
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 5D. MunieD
- 18R. RobertsD
- 28B. KikanovicM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 34B. LerouxM
- 2J. RickettsM
- 10N. TsakirisF
- 23E. LowenF
- 7O. BoudaF
- 31F. MontaliG
- 4D. RomneyD
- 87Vitor CostaD
- 17J. JasinskiD
- 16J. SkahanM
- 6I. HarkesM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 19P. JuddF
- 9L. JovanovicF
Form going into Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes
Austin
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Portland Timbers30 August 2026
- D1-1Philadelphia Union23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Seattle Sounders20 August 2026
- L1-2FC Dallas17 August 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids2 August 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Houston Dynamo30 August 2026
- L1-5Minnesota United FC23 August 2026
- L0-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy20 August 2026
- L1-3St. Louis City16 August 2026
- L2-4away to FC Cincinnati1 August 2026
What these results say
- Austin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Austin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Austin.
- San Jose Earthquakes did not win any of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Austin | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 65 | -23 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 57 | 51 | +6 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Austin and San Jose Earthquakes
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 42 league goals as a side.
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd172
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Austin and San Jose Earthquakes drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Austin at 42% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: B. Leroux 8' for San Jose Earthquakes, Guilherme Biro 90' for Austin. On expected goals it finished 1.23–1.03.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.