6 September 2026, 00:30 UTC

FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer prediction & result

Toyota Stadium, Frisco
Full time4 – 3

Final score: FC Dallas 4-3 Sporting Kansas City.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% FC Dallas, 29% draw, 27% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Dallas at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Dallas4%Draw93%Sporting Kansas City3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

-5'
Emir Karić
4'
⚽T. Calheira
19'
⚽S. Afrifa
⚽L. Farringtonassist: P. Musa
27'
⚽P. Musaassist: B. Kamungo
30'
⚽Kaickassist: L. Farrington
45'
58'
🔁Andre Luizout: S. Suleymanov
🔁H. Johanssonout: S. Ibeagha
62'
🔁Ramiroout: C. Cappis
62'
66'
🔁S. Afrifaout: S. Reid
🔁J. Valienteout: R. Binyamin
75'
🔁L. Farringtonout: S. Moreno
75'
78'
⚽T. Calheiraassist: E. Karic
🔁N. Norrisout: S. Sarver
81'
85'
🔁J. Reynoldsout: J. Miller
85'
🔁E. Karicout: J. Reid
88'
Moises Mosquera
•Petar Musa
90+3'
⚽P. Musa (pen)
90'

Match stats — FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City

44%Possession56%
15Shots26
9On target10
3Corners7
2.12xG2.84

Goals against chances

FC Dallas4 from 2.12 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sporting Kansas City3 from 2.84 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Dallas 3-5-2
  • 40J. SiroisG
  • 18S. MooreD
  • 32N. NorrisD
  • 3O. UrhoghideD
  • 14H. JohanssonM
  • 21J. ValienteM
  • 55KaickM
  • 17RamiroM
  • 77B. KamungoM
  • 23L. FarringtonF
  • 9P. MusaF
Substitutes
  • 30M. CollodiG
  • 25S. IbeaghaD
  • 24J. TorquatoD
  • 5L. AbubakarD
  • 12C. CappisM
  • 6R. BinyaminM
  • 33C. HolstadM
  • 10S. MorenoF
  • 28S. SarverF
Coach: Eric Quill
Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
  • 30S. ClevelandG
  • 13J. ReynoldsD
  • 3M. MosqueraD
  • 5O. BlorianD
  • 18E. KaricD
  • 11Andre LuizM
  • 4L. JohnsenM
  • 20K. AgyabengM
  • 7CapitaM
  • 17S. AfrifaF
  • 19T. CalheiraF
Substitutes
  • 1J. PulskampG
  • 15J. MillerD
  • 57Diego BorgesD
  • 99J. ReidD
  • 16J. BartlettD
  • 28W. MeyerD
  • 24R. RamosF
  • 93S. SuleymanovF
  • 29S. ReidF
Coach: Raphael Wicky

Form going into FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City

FC Dallas

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3away to St. Louis City30 August 2026
  • L0-5away to Vancouver Whitecaps23 August 2026
  • W4-3away to Real Salt Lake20 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Austin17 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Los Angeles Galaxy2 August 2026

Sporting Kansas City

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Atlanta United FC23 August 2026
  • D1-1St. Louis City20 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Colorado Rapids16 August 2026
  • L0-2Houston Dynamo2 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Dallas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FC Dallas had three goals or more.
  • Sporting Kansas City did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Sporting Kansas City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2FC Dallas34161086251+1158
15Sporting Kansas City3475224081-4126

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: FC Dallas and Sporting Kansas City

FC Dallas

GoalsAssists

  • P. Musa225

Sporting Kansas City

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Dallas beat Sporting Kansas City 4–3. The model had made a win for FC Dallas its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: T. Calheira 4' for Sporting Kansas City, S. Afrifa 19' for Sporting Kansas City, L. Farrington 27' for FC Dallas, P. Musa 30' for FC Dallas, Kaick 45' for FC Dallas, T. Calheira 78' for Sporting Kansas City, P. Musa (penalty) 90' for FC Dallas. On expected goals it finished 2.12–2.84.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.