Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Seattle Sounders 0-0 New York Red Bulls.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Seattle Sounders, 28% draw, 33% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Seattle Sounders at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26A. ThomasG
- 85K. Kossa-RienziD
- 16A. RoldanD
- 39S. HawkinsD
- 5NouhouD
- 7C. RoldanM
- 45P. KingstonM
- 13J. MorrisM
- 11A. RusnakM
- 14P. RothrockM
- 9D. JoveljicF
- 24S. FreiG
- 20Kim Kee-HeeD
- 35A. LopezD
- 4R. SailorD
- 31H. DotsonM
- 37S. BrunellM
- 90S. GomezM
- 17P. ArriolaF
- 19D. MusovskiF
- 34E. HorvathG
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 2J. CheD
- 14J. BazanD
- 56M. Dos SantosD
- 48R. DonkorM
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 37M. SofoM
- 7C. CowellF
- 16J. HallF
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 59D. PadelfordD
- 26T. ParkerD
- 12D. NealisD
- 8D. RuizM
- 13E. M. Choupo-MotingF
- 17C. HarperF
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 91M. JimenezF
Form going into Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls
Seattle Sounders
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Chicago Fire29 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC Cincinnati22 August 2026
- L1-2Austin20 August 2026
- L0-2Vancouver Whitecaps17 August 2026
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers2 August 2026
New York Red Bulls
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Philadelphia Union29 August 2026
- D1-1Chicago Fire22 August 2026
- L0-1Nashville SC19 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC15 August 2026
- W3-2Orlando City SC1 August 2026
What these results say
- Seattle Sounders did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 46 |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Seattle Sounders and New York Red Bulls drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Seattle Sounders at 39% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 2.08–0.91.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.