Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 New England Revolution.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Los Angeles Galaxy, 28% draw, 41% New England Revolution — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
New England Revolution at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12J. MarcinkowskiG
- 26H. MillerD
- 5J. GlesnesD
- 15J. HaakD
- 3J. AudeD
- 6S. RobertoM
- 27E. ThommyM
- 21R. TaylorM
- 18M. ReusM
- 11H. LozanoM
- 7K. FuruhashiF
- 1N. MicovicG
- 4M. YoshidaD
- 14J. NelsonD
- 25C. GarcesD
- 17P. RuizM
- 16I. ParenteM
- 8L. SanabriaM
- 76T. ElgersmaM
- 28J. PaintsilF
- 30M. TurnerG
- 8M. PolsterD
- 22E. KohlerD
- 2M. FofanaD
- 23W. SandsD
- 21B. RainesM
- 80A. YusufM
- 11J. HarrisonM
- 10C. GilM
- 25P. MillerM
- 99D. TurgemanF
- 33D. ParisianG
- 4T. BeasonD
- 12I. FeingoldD
- 16D. GazdagM
- 14J. YueillM
- 77D. FagundezM
- 7G. YowF
- 41L. LangoniF
- 27W. HarrisF
Form going into Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution
Los Angeles Galaxy
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to San Diego30 August 2026
- D2-2away to CF Montreal22 August 2026
- W1-0San Jose Earthquakes20 August 2026
- L0-1away to Houston Dynamo16 August 2026
- D0-0FC Dallas2 August 2026
New England Revolution
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Columbus Crew30 August 2026
- D1-1New York City FC23 August 2026
- W3-0away to DC United19 August 2026
- L1-2away to Toronto FC15 August 2026
- L0-2Houston Dynamo8 August 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles Galaxy failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- New England Revolution scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- New England Revolution conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 44 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 34 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 55 | 47 | +8 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Los Angeles Galaxy beat New England Revolution 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for New England Revolution at 41% and given a win for Los Angeles Galaxy 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Reus (penalty) 11' for Los Angeles Galaxy, R. Taylor 33' for Los Angeles Galaxy, C. Gil (penalty) 90' for New England Revolution. On expected goals it finished 1.47–2.64.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.