Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Vancouver Whitecaps 1-3 St. Louis City.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Vancouver Whitecaps, 30% draw, 27% St. Louis City — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Vancouver Whitecaps at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 29M. GherasimencovD
- 2M. LabordaD
- 33T. BlackmonD
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 59J. BadwalM
- 20A. CubasM
- 11E. SabbiM
- 13T. MullerM
- 14B. CaicedoM
- 19R. ElloumiF
- 32I. BoehmerG
- 3S. AdekugbeD
- 25R. GauldM
- 8O. LarrazM
- 70R. ModestoM
- 23A. CvetkovicM
- 77Y. DiabyF
- 24B. WhiteF
- 7C. SabalyF
- 1R. BurkiG
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 8C. DurkinM
- 6C. WallemM
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 23A. MatanM
- 14T. TotlandM
- 19C. HolseF
- 11S. BecherF
- 39B. LundtG
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 27F. FallD
- 4M. MbackeD
- 28M. PerezM
- 59M. JoynerM
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 77S. JeongF
- 42D. DownsF
Form going into Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City
Vancouver Whitecaps
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Sporting Kansas City30 August 2026
- W5-0FC Dallas23 August 2026
- L0-1Houston Dynamo20 August 2026
- W2-0away to Seattle Sounders17 August 2026
- D1-1Los Angeles FC1 August 2026
St. Louis City
All competitions we cover
- D3-3FC Dallas30 August 2026
- W2-1Houston Dynamo23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sporting Kansas City20 August 2026
- W3-1away to San Jose Earthquakes16 August 2026
- D1-1Real Salt Lake2 August 2026
What these results say
- Vancouver Whitecaps scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 74 | 34 | +40 | 64 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Vancouver Whitecaps and St. Louis City
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White202
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro196
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St. Louis City won 3–1 at Vancouver Whitecaps. The model had leaned towards a win for Vancouver Whitecaps at 43% and given a win for St. Louis City 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: E. Sabbi 3' for Vancouver Whitecaps, S. Becher 23' for St. Louis City, T. Totland 41' for St. Louis City, C. Wallem 45' for St. Louis City. On expected goals it finished 0.92–1.60.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.