VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: VfB Stuttgart 1-0 Werder Bremen.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% VfB Stuttgart, 23% draw, 26% Werder Bremen — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
VfB Stuttgart at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41D. SeimenG
- 14L. JaquezD
- 24J. ChabotD
- 3R. HendriksD
- 18J. LewelingM
- 21G. PrömelM
- 47Y. SpaltM
- 7M. MittelstädtM
- 11B. El KhannoussM
- 10C. FührichM
- 26D. UndavF
- 16A. KarazorM
- 28N. NarteyM
- 17D. PejčinovićF
- 2A. Al DakhilD
- 22L. AssignonD
- 1F. BredlowG
- 9E. DemirovićF
- 29Finn JeltschD
- 8Tiago TomásF
- 1K. HeinG
- 13ArthurD
- 5A. PieperD
- 32M. FriedlD
- 2O. DemanD
- 44Y. RegeerM
- 14S. LynenM
- 18E. DinkçiM
- 15L. ReisM
- 17M. GrüllM
- 10N. FüllkrugF
- 11J. NjinmahF
- 19K. QuetantF
- 30A. SchlagerG
- 33Mick SchmetgensD
- 23Dariusz StalmachM
- 4N. StarkD
- 3O. WójcikD
- 20Chuky San JoséM
- 26C. IttenF
Form going into VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart
Bundesliga
- W4-2away to Bayer Leverkusen31 October 2026
- L2-3Borussia Mönchengladbach23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hamburger SV17 October 2026
- W2-0away to SC Paderborn 0710 October 2026
Werder Bremen
Bundesliga
- W2-01899 Hoffenheim31 October 2026
- W3-2away to FSV Mainz 0524 October 2026
- D2-2SC Paderborn 0717 October 2026
- D2-2away to Borussia Dortmund9 October 2026
What these results say
- VfB Stuttgart scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Werder Bremen went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Werder Bremen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Werder Bremen conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
- 26 April 2026VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 14 December 2025Werder Bremen 0–4 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 13 April 2025VfB Stuttgart 1–2 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 30 November 2024Werder Bremen 2–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 21 April 2024Werder Bremen 2–1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 2 December 2023VfB Stuttgart 2–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
Leading scorers: VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart
GoalsAssists
- E. Demirović50
Werder Bremen
GoalsAssists
- N. Füllkrug90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
VfB Stuttgart beat Werder Bremen 1–0. The model had made a win for VfB Stuttgart its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Maximilian Mittelstädt 7' for VfB Stuttgart. On expected goals it finished 0.76–1.31.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave VfB Stuttgart a 13.9% chance to finish in the top four: 15.7% after a win, 12.4% after a draw, 9.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.7%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
For Werder Bremen the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.9% going in: 9.5% after a win, 6.7% after a draw, 5.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.6%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.