7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Birmingham vs Swansea Championship prediction & result

Birmingham
Referee: Anthony Backhouse
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Birmingham 2-1 Swansea.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Birmingham, 28% draw, 24% Swansea — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Birmingham at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽Ross Stewart (pen)
Chris Davies
24'
26'
Marko Stamenić
⚽Jay Stansfieldassist: Max Bird
29'
42'
Ross Stewart
45'
🔁Eom Ji-Sungout: Josh Key
49'
Jay Fulton
Jay Stansfield
54'
Ethan Laird
55'
🔁Liam Millarout: Demarai Gray
58'
🔁Patrick Robertsout: Carlos Vicente
58'
59'
🔁Moussa Kounfolo Yeoout: Elijah Just
59'
🔁Ross Stewartout: Zan Vipotnik
65'
⚽Christoph·Klarer (OG)
🔁Max Birdout: Marvin Ducksch
70'
🔁Jhon Elmer Solís Romeroout: Paik Seung-Ho
70'
🔁Ethan Lairdout: Luis Vasquez
80'
81'
🔁Jay Fultonout: melker widell
86'
🔁Goncalo Francoout: Joseph Amankwaah Opoku
⚽Jay Stansfield
87'

Match stats — Birmingham vs Swansea

59%Possession41%
21Shots8
8On target3
8Corners5
3.12xG1.1

Goals against chances

Birmingham2 from 3.12 xGless than the chances were worth
Swansea1 from 1.10 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Birmingham 4-2-3-1
  • 21R. AllsopG
  • 2E. LairdD
  • 5P. NeumannD
  • 4C. KlarerD
  • 20A. CochraneD
  • 24T. IwataM
  • 14J. SolisM
  • 16P. RobertsM
  • 18M. BirdM
  • 17L. MillarM
  • 28J. StansfieldF
Substitutes
  • 33M. DuckschF
  • 23D. FryD
  • 19T. Gardner-HickmanM
  • 10D. GrayF
  • 30Bradley MayoG
  • 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
  • 8Paik Seung-HoM
  • 32L. VázquezF
  • 7Carlos VicenteF
Coach: C. Davies
Swansea 4-3-3
  • 22L. VigourouxG
  • 26F. LissahD
  • 5B. CabangoD
  • 3J. SeeltD
  • 14J. TymonD
  • 17Gonçalo FrancoM
  • 4J. FultonM
  • 6M. StamenićM
  • 49M. YeoF
  • 31R. StewartF
  • 10Eom Ji-SungF
Substitutes
  • 1A. FisherG
  • 50C. HeywoodD
  • 33A. IdahF
  • 16Tom IorpendaM
  • 8E. JustF
  • 2J. KeyD
  • 30Joseph OkopuF
  • 9Z. VipotnikF
  • 7M. WidellM
Coach: Vítor Matos

Form going into Birmingham vs Swansea

Birmingham

Championship

  • W3-0Millwall3 November 2026
  • W3-1away to Lincoln31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Cardiff24 October 2026
  • W3-0QPR17 October 2026

Swansea

Championship

  • L1-3away to Portsmouth3 November 2026
  • W4-0Blackburn31 October 2026
  • L0-5away to QPR24 October 2026
  • L0-1West Ham17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Birmingham won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Birmingham scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Birmingham had three goals or more.
  • Swansea failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Swansea conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Swansea had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Birmingham158522814+1429
6Swansea158252218+426

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Swansea

  • 8 August 2026Swansea 0–1 BirminghamLeague Cup
  • 17 January 2026Swansea 1–1 BirminghamChampionship
  • 20 September 2025Birmingham 1–0 SwanseaChampionship
  • 13 January 2024Birmingham 2–2 SwanseaChampionship
  • 5 August 2023Swansea 1–1 BirminghamChampionship
  • 4 February 2023Swansea 3–4 BirminghamChampionship

The full Birmingham vs Swansea record →

Leading scorers: Birmingham and Swansea

Birmingham

GoalsAssists

  • A. Priske61
  • L. Millar43

Swansea

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Birmingham beat Swansea 2–1. The model had made a win for Birmingham its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jay Stansfield 29' for Birmingham, Christoph·Klarer (own goal) 65' for Swansea, Jay Stansfield 87' for Birmingham. Sent off: Marko Stamenić (Swansea) 26'. On expected goals it finished 3.12–1.10.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Birmingham a 30.2% chance to finish in the top two: 34.4% after a win, 26.6% after a draw, 22.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.4%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.

For Swansea the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 8.4% going in: 11.0% after a win, 8.4% after a draw, 6.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.7%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Birmingham v Swansea has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is Birmingham's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Birmingham win48%▲ +7
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Swansea win24%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.