RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: RB Leipzig 5-2 FC Augsburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% RB Leipzig, 20% draw, 18% FC Augsburg — fair odds of 1.61, 5.00 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
RB Leipzig at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26M. VandevoordtG
- 17R. BakuD
- 4W. OrbánD
- 23C. LukebaD
- 22D. RaumD
- 27T. GomisM
- 10B. GrudaM
- 21N. El AynaouiM
- 6E. BanzuziM
- 28C. NkunkuM
- 40RômuloF
- 13N. SeiwaldM
- 20R. ReitzM
- 1Ø. NylandG
- 7A. NusaM
- 30A. MaksimoviÄM
- 2A. KonéD
- 39B. HenrichsD
- 3M. EstèveD
- 14C. BaumgartnerM
- 1F. DahmenG
- 14Y. KeitelD
- 6J. GouweleeuwD
- 5C. MatsimaD
- 19R. FellhauerM
- 4H. MassengoM
- 32F. RiederM
- 16Hennes BehrensM
- 30A. KadeM
- 21A. IbrahimovićM
- 9Rodrigo RibeiroF
- 27M. WolfD
- 7Seol Young-WooD
- 37T. SchnitzerM
- 39U. OgunduF
- 22N. LabrovićG
- 10M. KömürM
- 38Loris HusicM
- 11M. GregoritschF
- 20A. Claude-MauriceM
Form going into RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg
RB Leipzig
Bundesliga
- W2-0away to FC Schalke 0431 October 2026
- W4-0SV Elversberg24 October 2026
- L1-6away to Bayern München17 October 2026
- W6-0Eintracht Frankfurt10 October 2026
FC Augsburg
Bundesliga
- L1-2SC Freiburg31 October 2026
- D1-1Union Berlin24 October 2026
- L3-4away to SV Elversberg17 October 2026
- D2-2Bayern München10 October 2026
What these results say
- RB Leipzig scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- RB Leipzig won 3 of these 4 matches.
- RB Leipzig kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Augsburg did not win any of these 4 matches.
- FC Augsburg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Augsburg conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 18 |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg
- 7 March 2026RB Leipzig 2–1 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 25 October 2025FC Augsburg 0–6 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 14 February 2025FC Augsburg 0–0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 28 September 2024RB Leipzig 4–0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 10 February 2024FC Augsburg 2–2 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 16 September 2023RB Leipzig 3–0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg
RB Leipzig
GoalsAssists
- C. Nkunku52
- Rômulo50
- A. Nusa47
FC Augsburg
GoalsAssists
- M. Gregoritsch50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
RB Leipzig beat FC Augsburg 5–2. The model had made a win for RB Leipzig its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Anton Kade 1' for FC Augsburg, Ezechiel Banzuzi 34' for RB Leipzig, Christopher Nkunku 35' for RB Leipzig, David Raum 45+1' for RB Leipzig, Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz 60' for RB Leipzig, Christoph Baumgartner 66' for RB Leipzig, Uchenna Ogundu 90+2' for FC Augsburg. On expected goals it finished 1.68–1.90.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave RB Leipzig a 74.8% chance to finish in the top four: 77.9% after a win, 71.7% after a draw, 66.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 77.9%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.
For FC Augsburg the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 3.9% going in: 6.8% after a win, 4.1% after a draw, 2.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.8%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on RB Leipzig v FC Augsburg has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 56% / 21% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 62% / 20% / 18%: the biggest move is RB Leipzig's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- RB Leipzig win62%▲ +6
- Draw20%▼ −1
- FC Augsburg win18%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.