Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 SV Elversberg.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Borussia Dortmund, 20% draw, 14% SV Elversberg — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Borussia Dortmund at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. KobelG
- 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
- 3W. AntonD
- 4N. SchlotterbeckD
- 24D. SvenssonD
- 7J. BellinghamM
- 25J. VeermanM
- 8F. NmechaM
- 19K. KaretsasF
- 21Fábio SilvaF
- 17C. ChukwuemekaF
- 40S. InacioF
- 5R. BensebaïniD
- 14M. BeierF
- 41M. AlbertF
- 18E. NwaneriM
- 49L. ReggianiD
- 26J. RyersonD
- 33A. MeyerG
- 20M. SabitzerM
- 20N. KristofG
- 26L. SirchD
- 19L. PinckertD
- 31M. RohrD
- 21L. GüntherD
- 43F. KeidelM
- 8Ł. PorębaM
- 25L. PetkovM
- 40Francis-Ikechukwu OnyekaM
- 7M. KrattenmacherM
- 42D. MokwaF
- 15R. AdamF
- 28T. BossG
- 39William Cole CampbellF
- 6A. CondéM
- 9N. FutkeuF
- 3F. Le JoncourD
- 2N. MickelsonD
- 17F. SchmahlM
- 24L. SchnellbacherM
Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg
Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga
- D2-2away to Bayern München31 October 2026
- W1-0Eintracht Frankfurt24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Union Berlin17 October 2026
- D2-2Werder Bremen9 October 2026
SV Elversberg
Bundesliga
- W4-1FSV Mainz 0530 October 2026
- L0-4away to RB Leipzig24 October 2026
- W4-3FC Augsburg17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Union Berlin10 October 2026
What these results say
- Borussia Dortmund went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- SV Elversberg conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for SV Elversberg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and SV Elversberg
Borussia Dortmund
GoalsAssists
- F. Nmecha40
SV Elversberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Krattenmacher41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Borussia Dortmund beat SV Elversberg 2–1. The model had made a win for Borussia Dortmund its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Felix Nmecha 55' for Borussia Dortmund, Felix Nmecha 71' for Borussia Dortmund, Noel Futkeu 81' for SV Elversberg. On expected goals it finished 1.61–1.31.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Borussia Dortmund a 20.3% chance to finish top of the regular season: 22.4% after a win, 14.6% after a draw, 15.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.4%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
For SV Elversberg the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 7.8% going in: 11.6% after a win, 9.1% after a draw, 6.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.5%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 62% / 21% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 66% / 20% / 14%: the biggest move is Borussia Dortmund's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Borussia Dortmund win66%▲ +4
- Draw20%▼ −1
- SV Elversberg win14%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.