7 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Auxerre vs Paris FC Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre
Referee: Marc Bollengier
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Auxerre 0-1 Paris FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Auxerre, 24% draw, 54% Paris FC — fair odds of 4.55, 4.17 and 1.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Paris FC at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Auxerre0%Draw3%Paris FC97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
Pierre Lees Melou
Cameron Archer
15'
Sinaly Diomande
16'
•Fredrik Oppegard
39'
63'
⚽Lassine Sinayokoassist: Pablo Pagis
🔁Telli Siweout: Clément Akpa
65'
🔁Marvin Senayaout: Lamine Sy
65'
66'
🔁Moses Simonout: Luca Koleosho
73'
🔁Ilan Kebbalout: Patrick Zabi
🔁Naouirou Ahamadaout: Kevin Danois
74'
🔁Danny Namasoout: Remy Labeau Lascary
74'
William Still
80'
🔁Fredrik Oppegardout: Rayan Mandengue
85'
Kevin Danois
88'
90'
🔁Lassine Sinayokoout: Omar Sissoko
90'
🔁Pablo Pagisout: Moustapha Mbow

Match stats — Auxerre vs Paris FC

34%Possession66%
7Shots10
2On target3
1Corners5
0.75xG0.94

Goals against chances

Auxerre0 from 0.75 xGless than the chances were worth
Paris FC1 from 0.94 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Auxerre 4-3-3
  • 1P. NardiG
  • 29M. SenayaD
  • 4A. TuanzebeD
  • 20S. DiomandéD
  • 13T. SiweD
  • 8N. AhamadaM
  • 17P. EkwahM
  • 22F. OppegårdM
  • 21R. FaivreF
  • 9C. ArcherF
  • 10D. NamasoF
Substitutes
  • 27L. SyD
  • 77Aristide ZossouM
  • 92C. AkpaD
  • 5K. DanoisM
  • 23M. DiopG
  • 32R. MandengueD
  • 3R. Labeau LascaryF
  • 15C. MakossoD
  • 46A. PiedfortM
Coach: W. Still
Paris FC 3-4-2-1
  • 1K. TrappG
  • 14H. TraoréD
  • 42D. CoppolaD
  • 6OtávioD
  • 23R. MatondoM
  • 20M. LopezM
  • 33P. Lees-MelouM
  • 27M. SimonM
  • 10I. KebbalM
  • 7P. PagisM
  • 9L. SinayokoF
Substitutes
  • 28T. De SmetD
  • 15L. KoleoshoF
  • 11J. KrassoF
  • 4V. MarchettiM
  • 3E. MbembaD
  • 5M. MbowD
  • 16O. NkambadioG
  • 18O. SissokoF
  • 8E. ZabiM
Coach: L. Rosenior

Form going into Auxerre vs Paris FC

Auxerre

Ligue 1

  • L1-5away to Strasbourg1 November 2026
  • D1-1Le Mans25 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Le Havre18 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Rennes11 October 2026

Paris FC

Ligue 1

  • W3-1Monaco1 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Lens24 October 2026
  • W4-3Rennes18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Lorient10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Auxerre scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Auxerre conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Auxerre.
  • Paris FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Paris FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Paris FC had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Auxerre103161324-1110
3Paris FC106221710+720

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Auxerre vs Paris FC

  • 8 February 2026Auxerre 0–0 Paris FCLigue 1
  • 29 November 2025Paris FC 1–1 AuxerreLigue 1
  • 4 May 2024Auxerre 2–0 Paris FCLigue 2
  • 7 October 2023Paris FC 0–2 AuxerreLigue 2
  • 1 February 2022Auxerre 1–2 Paris FCLigue 2

The full Auxerre vs Paris FC record →

Leading scorers: Auxerre and Paris FC

Auxerre

GoalsAssists

  • C. Archer60

Paris FC

GoalsAssists

  • L. Sinayoko95

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Paris FC won 1–0 at Auxerre. The model had made a win for Paris FC its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Lassine Sinayoko 63' for Paris FC. On expected goals it finished 0.75–0.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Auxerre a 17.4% chance to finish in the bottom two: 10.5% after a win, 16.3% after a draw, 19.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.5%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

For Paris FC the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 44.1% going in: 48.1% after a win, 40.0% after a draw, 35.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.1%, 4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Auxerre v Paris FC has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 25% / 25% / 50% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 22% / 24% / 54%: the biggest move is Paris FC's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Auxerre win22%▼ −3
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. Paris FC win54%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.