7 November 2026, 20:05 UTC

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes Ligue 1 prediction & result

Parc des Princes, Paris
Referee: Ruddy Buquet
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Estac Troyes.

Before kick-off the model made it 81% Paris Saint Germain, 13% draw, 6% Estac Troyes — fair odds of 1.23, 7.69 and 16.67.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Paris Saint Germain at 81%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paris Saint Germain98%Draw2%Estac Troyes0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ilya Zabarnyi
34'
⚽Ilya Zabarnyiassist: Senny Mayulu
39'
62'
🔁Kandet Diawaraout: Hugo Picard
62'
🔁Renaud Ripartout: Jérémy Le Douaron
🔁Mika Godtsout: João Neves
70'
🔁Ferrán Torresout: Quentin Ndjantou
70'
72'
🔁Merwan Ifnaouiout: Idrissa Soukouna
73'
🔁Ismaël Bouraout: Yvann Titi
79'
Jérémy Le Douaron
85'
🔁Mouhamed Diopout: Timothee Nkada
🔁Senny Mayuluout: Dro Fernández
86'
🔁Fabián Ruizout: Lucas Beraldo
86'
86'
Antoine Mille

Match stats — Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes

73%Possession27%
15Shots8
7On target3
6Corners1
2.1xG0.67

Goals against chances

Paris Saint Germain1 from 2.10 xGless than the chances were worth
Estac Troyes0 from 0.67 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
  • 39M. SafonovG
  • 33W. Zaïre-EmeryD
  • 6I. ZabarnyiD
  • 51W. PachoD
  • 21L. HernándezD
  • 24Senny MayuluM
  • 17VitinhaM
  • 8Fabián RuizM
  • 14D. DouéF
  • 9Ferran TorresF
  • 22M. GodtsF
Substitutes
  • 42D. BolyD
  • 12L. DigneD
  • 27Pedro FernándezM
  • 87João NevesM
  • 30L. ChevalierG
  • 46Y. IdderM
  • 16A. LongoniG
  • 4BeraldoD
  • 47Quentin Ndjantou MbitchaF
Coach: Luis Enrique
Estac Troyes 4-5-1
  • 40H. KonatéG
  • 2L. MaronnierD
  • 6A. MonfrayD
  • 4M. DiazD
  • 14I. BouraD
  • 10M. IfnaouiM
  • 17A. MilleM
  • 29D. KarimM
  • 8M. DiopM
  • 7K. DiawaraM
  • 20R. RipartF
Substitutes
  • 44Y. TitiD
  • 33P. BeachG
  • 11I. GomisM
  • 5P. GozziD
  • 9J. Le DouaronF
  • 23T. NkadaF
  • 26A. PhliponeauM
  • 22H. PicardM
  • 36I. SoukounaM
Coach: S. Dumont

Form going into Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes

Paris Saint Germain

Ligue 1

  • W5-1away to Le Havre30 October 2026
  • W2-0Lyon26 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Strasbourg17 October 2026
  • W3-1Le Mans10 October 2026

Estac Troyes

Ligue 1

  • W2-0Le Mans31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Toulouse25 October 2026
  • L1-3Lens17 October 2026
  • L0-2Marseille11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Paris Saint Germain won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Paris Saint Germain conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Estac Troyes failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Estac Troyes had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain107212210+1223
17Estac Troyes10226717-108

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes

  • 7 May 2023Estac Troyes 1–3 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
  • 29 October 2022Paris Saint Germain 4–3 Estac TroyesLigue 1
  • 8 May 2022Paris Saint Germain 2–2 Estac TroyesLigue 1
  • 7 August 2021Estac Troyes 1–2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
  • 3 March 2018Estac Troyes 0–2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
  • 29 November 2017Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1

The full Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes record →

Leading scorers: Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes

Paris Saint Germain

GoalsAssists

  • Ferran Torres41
  • A. Hakimi32

Estac Troyes

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Paris Saint Germain beat Estac Troyes 1–0. The model had made a win for Paris Saint Germain its most likely outcome, at 81%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goal: Ilya Zabarnyi 39' for Paris Saint Germain. On expected goals it finished 2.10–0.67.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Paris Saint Germain a 80.2% chance to finish top of the regular season: 81.1% after a win, 74.8% after a draw, 69.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 81.1%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.

For Estac Troyes the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 40.6% going in: 27.9% after a win, 36.3% after a draw, 41.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.5%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.