7 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Saint Etienne vs Laval Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Geoffroy-Guichard
Referee: Karim Abed
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Saint Etienne 2-0 Laval.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Saint Etienne, 23% draw, 17% Laval — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Saint Etienne at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Saint Etienne99%Draw1%Laval0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

João Ferreira
20'
25'
Mathys Houdayer
⚽Irvin Cardonaassist: Jakob Breum
45+1'
⚽Jakob Breumassist: Irvin Cardona
50'
60'
🔁Oumar Konatéout: Amine Moussaoui
60'
🔁Teddy Bouriaudout: Chafik Gourichy
🔁João Ferreiraout: Chico Lamba
60'
Chico Lamba
64'
Julien Le Cardinal
65'
🔁Augustine Boakyeout: Zuriko Davitashvili
71'
🔁Jakob Breumout: Mahmoud Jaber
71'
🔁Irvin Cardonaout: Joshua Duffus
80'
🔁Maxime Bernauerout: Nadir El Jamali
80'
82'
🔁Ethan Clavreulout: Jules Gaudin
82'
🔁Sam Sannaout: Julien Maggiotti
82'
🔁Layousse Sambout: Cyril Mandouki

Match stats — Saint Etienne vs Laval

58%Possession42%
14Shots4
6On target1
7Corners0
2.94xG0.21

Goals against chances

Saint Etienne2 from 2.94 xGless than the chances were worth
Laval0 from 0.21 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Saint Etienne 4-2-3-1
  • 1Mamour NdiayeG
  • 13João FerreiraD
  • 23K. PedroD
  • 26J. Le CardinalD
  • 11B. OldD
  • 6M. BernauerM
  • 14Á. CsongvaiM
  • 20A. BoakyeM
  • 10J. BreumM
  • 8T. BalloM
  • 7I. CardonaF
Substitutes
  • 40L. LavalléeG
  • 17J. DuffusF
  • 32Adam BaallalM
  • 46E. DhaouiM
  • 5M. JaberM
  • 18S. NairD
  • 15Chico LambaD
  • 31N. El JamaliM
  • 22Z. DavitashviliF
Coach: Ian Cathro
Laval 4-3-1-2
  • 1M. HautboisG
  • 23E. MoutonD
  • 29M. SidibeD
  • 3W. BiandaD
  • 35Layousse SambD
  • 6S. SannaM
  • 21Alessio BeaudouinM
  • 8T. BouriaudM
  • 31M. HoudayerM
  • 20E. ClavreulF
  • 9O. KonateF
Substitutes
  • 34A. MoussaouiF
  • 24S. BaneD
  • 40L. DroyauxG
  • 22J. GaudinD
  • 7Chafik GourichyM
  • 18A. LôD
  • 5J. MaggiottiM
  • 14C. MandoukiM
  • 33S. MellierM
Coach: David Vignes

Form going into Saint Etienne vs Laval

Saint Etienne

Ligue 2

  • L0-3away to Guingamp31 October 2026
  • W1-0Nantes24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to RED Star FC 9317 October 2026
  • W2-0Rodez10 October 2026

Laval

Ligue 2

  • W1-0Boulogne30 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Nancy23 October 2026
  • D3-3Clermont Foot16 October 2026
  • L2-3away to PAU9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Saint Etienne won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Saint Etienne scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Saint Etienne kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Laval failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Laval scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Laval conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Saint Etienne129122511+1428
18Laval122371423-99

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Saint Etienne vs Laval

  • 21 February 2026Saint Etienne 2–1 LavalLigue 2
  • 9 August 2025Laval 3–3 Saint EtienneLigue 2
  • 13 January 2024Saint Etienne 0–0 LavalLigue 2
  • 23 October 2023Laval 0–1 Saint EtienneLigue 2
  • 13 May 2023Laval 2–1 Saint EtienneLigue 2

Leading scorers: Saint Etienne and Laval

Saint Etienne

GoalsAssists

  • I. Cardona65
  • A. Boakye63
  • T. Ballo52

Laval

GoalsAssists

  • M. Houdayer40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Saint Etienne beat Laval 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Saint Etienne at 60%. The goals: Irvin Cardona 45+1' for Saint Etienne, Jakob Breum 50' for Saint Etienne. On expected goals it finished 2.94–0.21.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Saint Etienne a 44.4% chance to finish top of the regular season: 47.4% after a win, 40.0% after a draw, 35.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.4%, 3 points higher than before the match.

For Laval the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 53.5% going in: 41.6% after a win, 52.5% after a draw, 56.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.3%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Saint Etienne v Laval has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 67% / 20% / 13% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 60% / 23% / 17%: the biggest move is Saint Etienne's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Saint Etienne win60%▼ −7
  2. Draw23%▲ +3
  3. Laval win17%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.