Empoli vs Juve Stabia Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Empoli 2-2 Juve Stabia.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Empoli, 31% draw, 36% Juve Stabia — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Juve Stabia at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Empoli vs Juve Stabia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12J. SeghettiG
- 36D. BembnistaD
- 28G. IndragoliD
- 25M. CurtoD
- 98K. ZedadkaM
- 23F. BandinelliM
- 21Gerard YepesM
- 10E. SaporitiM
- 91N. CorradoM
- 77B. PopovF
- 15J. CeesayF
- 40R. BerizziD
- 39E. BiondiniM
- 5D. Degli InnocentiM
- 44L. DeliM
- 20F. DistefanoF
- 35M. EganD
- 13E. FilippisG
- 16F. MeznarF
- 1S. PerisanG
- 1A. VukovićG
- 2M. RicciardiD
- 87D. BettellaD
- 6M. BellichD
- 25T. DouglasD
- 17N. KarićM
- 8D. BuglioM
- 24J. KumiM
- 37F. MaistroF
- 9Antonio Di NardoF
- 27L. CandelloneF
- 20L. CaccavoF
- 23P. BoerG
- 5T. BattistellaM
- 4M. BaldiD
- 80F. ArtioliM
- 92F. GalleaD
- 96T. MaggioniD
- 77S. FernandesF
- 7Nicola PatanèF
Form going into Empoli vs Juve Stabia
Empoli
Serie B
- L1-2away to Cesena27 October 2026
- L0-2Vicenza Virtus23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ascoli17 October 2026
Juve Stabia
Serie B
- L0-1Hellas Verona28 October 2026
- W1-0away to Cremonese24 October 2026
- W3-0Sudtirol18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Empoli | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 9 |
| 13 | Juve Stabia | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Empoli vs Juve Stabia
- 11 February 2026Empoli 1–2 Juve StabiaSerie B
- 13 December 2025Juve Stabia 2–0 EmpoliSerie B
- 18 January 2020Juve Stabia 1–0 EmpoliSerie B
- 25 August 2019Empoli 2–1 Juve StabiaSerie B
Leading scorers: Empoli and Juve Stabia
Empoli
GoalsAssists
- E. Saporiti40
Juve Stabia
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Di Nardo70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Empoli and Juve Stabia drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Juve Stabia at 36% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Antonio Di Nardo 33' for Juve Stabia, Bogdan Popov 38' for Empoli, Edoardo Saporiti 44' for Empoli, Antonio Di Nardo 59' for Juve Stabia. On expected goals it finished 1.72–1.28.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Empoli a 39.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 31.3% after a win, 41.9% after a draw, 44.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 41.9%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.
For Juve Stabia the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.6% going in: 6.4% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 12.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 9.6%.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Empoli v Juve Stabia has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 33% / 31% / 36%: the biggest move is Empoli's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Empoli win33%▼ −5
- Draw31%▲ +1
- Juve Stabia win36%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.