25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa Segunda Liga prediction & result

Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos, Felgueiras
Referee: Joao Goncalves
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Felgueiras 1932 2-2 Lusitânia Lourosa.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Felgueiras 1932, 29% draw, 34% Lusitânia Lourosa — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Felgueiras 1932 at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Felgueiras 19324%Draw93%Lusitânia Lourosa3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Lucas da Costa Duarte
10'
⚽Tiago Leiteassist: Lucas da Costa Duarte
21'
33'
🔁Brian da Rocha·Araujoout: Gabriel Souza
43'
⚽Bruno Fariaassist: João Santos
45+8'
⚽Micael correia
🔁Rodrigo Santos Ribeiroout: Michel Costa
46'
⚽Lucas da Costa Duarte
47'
55'
Francisco machado
🔁Filipe Cruzout: Tiago Ventura da Silva
62'
65'
🔁Fabinhoout: Miguel Teixeira
65'
🔁João Santosout: João Silva
🔁Lucas da Costa Duarteout: Mario Rivas Viondi
69'
79'
🔁Micael correiaout: Daniel Paulo dos Santos
79'
🔁Saliou Mandiangout: Paulo Miguel·Gomes Ferreira
84'
🔁Daniel Paulo dos Santosout: Moises Tablante
Michel Costa
86'
🔁Bilal Ouacharafout: Afonso Peixoto
90'
🔁Armando Roberto·Torres Lopesout: Rui Pedro Ribeiro Sousa Peixoto
90+1'
90+3'
Miguel Teixeira

Match stats — Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa

54%Possession46%
13Shots7
4On target4
3Corners5

Line-ups

Felgueiras 1932 4-4-2
  • 14Mateus PasinatoG
  • 17Filipe CruzD
  • 3João PintoD
  • 23Afonso de FreitasD
  • 15Armando LopesD
  • 70B. OuacharafD
  • 16Beni JetourM
  • 77Francisco FrançaM
  • 20Rodrigo Santos RibeiroM
  • 9Tiago Rafael Fernandes LeiiteF
  • 19Lucas da Costa DuarteF
Substitutes
  • 22Samuel Oliveira Vivas CastroD
  • 25Felipe ScheibigG
  • 24Rui RampaD
  • 95Nuno NamoraD
  • 5Afonso PeixotoD
  • 10Michel CostaM
  • 21Diogo BatistaM
  • 96Martim Duarte
  • 7Mario RivasF
Coach: Moreno
Lusitânia Lourosa 4-3-3
  • 29Brian AraújoG
  • 24RicardinhoD
  • 4D. CollardD
  • 22Bruno FariaD
  • 52F. MachadoD
  • 12ArsénioF
  • 20Diogo PauloM
  • 27FabinhoM
  • 19SaliouD
  • 17João SantosF
  • 7Micael correiaF
Substitutes
  • 16Luís RochaD
  • 42Guilherme SoaresD
  • 6António MontezD
  • 88Miguel TeixeiraM
  • 9João SilvaF
  • 11M. TablanteF
  • 90Iuri MoreiraF
  • 1Gabriel SouzaG
  • 21PaulitéF

Form going into Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa

Felgueiras 1932

Segunda Liga

  • L0-1away to Benfica B12 October 2026
  • L1-2Penafiel12 September 2026

Lusitânia Lourosa

Segunda Liga

  • D1-1Chaves11 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Sporting CP B14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Felgueiras 1932101541215-38
4Lusitânia Lourosa10541159+619

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa

  • 7 February 2026Lusitânia Lourosa 2–1 Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga
  • 30 August 2025Felgueiras 1932 3–1 Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
  • 28 April 2024Felgueiras 1932 2–0 Lusitânia LourosaLiga 3
  • 2 March 2024Lusitânia Lourosa 1–0 Felgueiras 1932Liga 3
  • 5 November 2023Felgueiras 1932 2–1 Lusitânia LourosaLiga 3
  • 8 August 2023Lusitânia Lourosa 0–0 Felgueiras 1932Liga 3

Leading scorers: Felgueiras 1932 and Lusitânia Lourosa

Felgueiras 1932

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Lusitânia Lourosa

GoalsAssists

  • Mika Borges10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Felgueiras 1932 and Lusitânia Lourosa drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Felgueiras 1932 at 37% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Tiago Leite 21' for Felgueiras 1932, Bruno Faria 43' for Lusitânia Lourosa, Micael correia 45+8' for Lusitânia Lourosa, Lucas da Costa Duarte 47' for Felgueiras 1932.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Felgueiras 1932 a 25.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 20.0% after a win, 24.8% after a draw, 30.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 24.8%.

For Lusitânia Lourosa the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 40.1% going in: 46.7% after a win, 38.8% after a draw, 34.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 38.8%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Felgueiras 1932 v Lusitânia Lourosa has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Felgueiras 1932's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Felgueiras 1932 win37%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Lusitânia Lourosa win34%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.