26 October 2026, 20:45 UTC

Torreense vs Amarante Segunda Liga prediction & result

Estadio Manuel Marques, Torres Vedras
Referee: Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Torreense 1-0 Amarante.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Torreense, 25% draw, 21% Amarante — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Torreense at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Torreense97%Draw3%Amarante0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Malik Abubakari
9'
19'
José António Dória Santos Campelo
Amine Oudrhiri
21'
🔁Amine Oudrhiriout: João Marques
34'
46'
🔁Abdoul zangreout: Leandro Ferreira
46'
🔁Diogo Costaout: Luís Machado
49'
feliciano mendes
59'
🔁José António Dória Santos Campeloout: Rodrigo Barata Gorgueira Alves Guedes
🔁Malik Abubakariout: Karem Zoabi
67'
🔁Manuel Pozoout: musa drammeh
67'
70'
Joao filipe
72'
🔁Arome Emmanuel Idacheout: Ruben Alves
72'
🔁Simão Silvaout: Rudi Almeida
76'
Fernando de Lacerda Gomes
🔁Dany Jeanout: Andre Simões
88'
🔁Nuha Jattaout: Hugo Pérez
88'
Hugo Pérez
90+4'

Match stats — Torreense vs Amarante

56%Possession44%
9Shots9
4On target4
3Corners3

Line-ups

Torreense 4-2-3-1
  • 16Lisandru OlmetaG
  • 22David BrunoD
  • 4Volnei FeltesD
  • 2StopiraD
  • 3Juan María AlcedoD
  • 6A. OudrhiriM
  • 8Alejandro AlfaroM
  • 11Manu PozoF
  • 21Nuha JattaM
  • 7D. JeanM
  • 27M. AbubakariF
Substitutes
  • 19K. ZoabiF
  • 23Javi VázquezD
  • 26André SimõesM
  • 77Joel RomeroM
  • 29L. QuinteroF
  • 28Hugo PérezD
  • 45J. MutomboD
  • 33João MarquesF
  • 61Chagas JoaoF
Coach: Luís Tralhão
Amarante 3-5-2
  • 65Diogo FigueiredoG
  • 3Feliciano MendesD
  • 4João FilipeD
  • 28Diogo CostaD
  • 5Joao RicardoF
  • 85Nito GomesD
  • 26A. ZangreM
  • 8TokinhoM
  • 15Rodrigo BeirãoD
  • 78Simão SilvaM
  • 14A. IdacheF
Substitutes
  • 88Rúben AlvesF
  • 20Luís MachadoF
  • 9cardosoM
  • 16Rodrigo CarvalhoD
  • 51Diogo FernandesG
  • 7L. FerreiraF
  • 1Rafael FloresG
  • 6Rodrigo GuedesM
  • 36Ian CustódioD
Coach: Renato Coimbra

Form going into Torreense vs Amarante

Torreense

Segunda Liga

  • L0-1away to Tondela10 October 2026
  • D0-0Leixoes11 September 2026

Amarante

Segunda Liga

  • L1-2Portimonense10 October 2026
  • D2-2União de Leiria13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Torreense102441013-310
14Amarante10235913-49

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Torreense and Amarante

Torreense

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Amarante

GoalsAssists

  • Gonçalo Cunha10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Torreense beat Amarante 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Torreense at 54%. The goal: Malik Abubakari 9' for Torreense.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Torreense a 9.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.4% after a win, 11.7% after a draw, 14.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.4%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.

For Amarante the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 54.5% going in: 42.1% after a win, 56.0% after a draw, 58.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.3%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Torreense v Amarante has moved

First published on 12 Oct at 61% / 23% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is Torreense's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Torreense win54%▼ −7
  2. Draw25%▲ +2
  3. Amarante win21%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.