Penafiel vs Feirense Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Penafiel 1-0 Feirense.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Penafiel, 23% draw, 15% Feirense — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Penafiel at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Penafiel vs Feirense
Line-ups
- 1Miguel OliveiraG
- 5Jaime SánchezD
- 6Adrián PicaD
- 3Cláudio SilvaD
- 7Douglas BorelD
- 17João PintoF
- 21Pedro SáM
- 2Iano ImbeneD
- 11J. FuentesF
- 9Max SvenssonF
- 33Ricardo SchutteF
- 50Francisco VarelaM
- 38M. RamonM
- 14Jorge MeréD
- 4João MiguelD
- 12Alexei Rojas FedorushchenkoG
- 10DavoF
- 18Konrad SinyamM
- 99ClaudioF
- 13Eric PuertoG
- 26Diego AltubeG
- 20João OliveiraD
- 4Antonio LealD
- 14Pedro PintoD
- 40João QueirósD
- 15Diego MorenoD
- 23Pedro HenriqueF
- 6Diogo MendesM
- 90LuisinhoM
- 25Henrique PereiraF
- 9J. MonteiroF
- 19Alexandre GuedesF
- 30Peter Adejimi
- 1Francisco MeixedoG
- 16André LopesD
- 8Gui SantosM
- 24M. DiabyM
- 47PiriF
- 27Tiago CastroM
- 3KaiquyD
Form going into Penafiel vs Feirense
Penafiel
Segunda Liga
- W4-1away to Farense24 October 2026
- L1-2AVS9 October 2026
- W2-1away to Felgueiras 193212 September 2026
Feirense
Segunda Liga
- D0-0Benfica B24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Farense11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Chaves13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penafiel | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 22 |
| 18 | Feirense | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Penafiel vs Feirense
- 15 March 2026Feirense 1–0 PenafielSegunda Liga
- 19 October 2025Penafiel 1–2 FeirenseSegunda Liga
- 19 April 2025Penafiel 1–2 FeirenseSegunda Liga
- 7 December 2024Feirense 3–0 PenafielSegunda Liga
- 29 January 2024Penafiel 2–1 FeirenseSegunda Liga
- 20 August 2023Feirense 2–0 PenafielSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Penafiel and Feirense
Penafiel
No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Feirense
GoalsAssists
- J. Monteiro10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Penafiel beat Feirense 1–0. The model had made a win for Penafiel its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: João Pinto 54' for Penafiel.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Penafiel a 56.8% chance to finish in the top three: 59.4% after a win, 54.1% after a draw, 48.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.4%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.
For Feirense the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 75.6% going in: 65.6% after a win, 75.7% after a draw, 77.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 77.7%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.