Celje vs Omonia Nicosia UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Celje 0-3 Omonia Nicosia.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% Celje, 26% draw, 52% Omonia Nicosia — fair odds of 4.55, 3.85 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Omonia Nicosia at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celje vs Omonia Nicosia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Žan-Luk LebanG
- 44Ł. BejgerD
- 15Ž. ŽužekD
- 6A. TutyškinasD
- 11M. AvdyliD
- 91Y. DukulyM
- 13Papa Mustapha DanielM
- 19M. ZabukovnikM
- 14L. TičićM
- 10S. SešlarF
- 9B. KramerF
- 25V. TushaF
- 31D. SuhovrsnikF
- 8M. KvesićM
- 7B. VerbičM
- 20A. DionkouD
- 47A. KučysF
- 23Ž. FrelihG
- 4D. HrkaM
- 77M. IvanšekF
- 40FabianoG
- 93J. DuverneD
- 5S. CoulibalyD
- 37Ľ. ŠatkaD
- 29J. BalkovecD
- 74P. AndreouM
- 22M. TankovicM
- 14M. MarićM
- 11EwandroF
- 99L. DionyF
- 7J. MontnorF
- 27S. SimičD
- 85A. NeophytouF
- 77L. NégoD
- 78Pantelis MichailG
- 21M. MayambelaF
- 1T. KaminskiG
- 9A. KakoullisF
- 92C. PanagiotisM
- 20L. BrouwersM
Form going into Celje vs Omonia Nicosia
Celje
UEFA Europa League
- L0-2away to Bayer Leverkusen16 September 2026
Omonia Nicosia
UEFA Europa League
- W1-0Celta Vigo16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Celje and Omonia Nicosia
Celje
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Omonia Nicosia
GoalsAssists
- L. Diony50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Omonia Nicosia won 3–0 at Celje. The model had made a win for Omonia Nicosia its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jaden Sean Montnor 16' for Omonia Nicosia, Muamer Tanković 59' for Omonia Nicosia, Senou Coulibaly 84' for Omonia Nicosia. On expected goals it finished 1.00–2.13.
How the call on Celje v Omonia Nicosia has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 25% / 30% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 22% / 26% / 52%: the biggest move is Omonia Nicosia's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Celje win22%▼ −3
- Draw26%▼ −4
- Omonia Nicosia win52%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Celje's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Omonia Nicosia's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.