Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Bournemouth 3-0 Sturm Graz.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Bournemouth, 25% draw, 20% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Bournemouth at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Đ. PetrovićG
- 15A. SmithD
- 18B. DiakitéD
- 14António SilvaD
- 6J. SolerD
- 11B. DoakM
- 4L. CookM
- 12T. AdamsM
- 16M. TavernierM
- 9EvanilsonF
- 30Á. RodríguezF
- 27A. TóthM
- 10R. ChristieM
- 7D. BrooksM
- 55M. AllanG
- 21A. AdliF
- 20M. Di GregorioG
- 5J. HillD
- 19J. KluivertF
- 37RayanF
- 53D. KhudyakovG
- 28J. HeilD
- 23A. MalicD
- 2J. QuarshieD
- 21P. PetrovićD
- 27L. BalboD
- 78V. MatoshiM
- 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
- 43Jacob Peter HödlM
- 19S. SeidlF
- 26B. BeganovićF
- 39Luca WeinhandlM
- 5A. VallciD
- 41E. LorenzG
- 30P. KollerD
- 11A. KayomboF
- 22A. HelacG
- 40J. HalwachsM
- 14O. DiakitéF
- 25M. GrgicM
Form going into Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
Bournemouth
UEFA Europa League
- W2-1away to Real Sociedad17 September 2026
Sturm Graz
UEFA Europa League
- D0-0Rennes16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 12 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Bournemouth and Sturm Graz
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- Rayan30
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bournemouth beat Sturm Graz 3–0. The model had made a win for Bournemouth its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Francisco Evanilson 43' for Bournemouth, Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha 76' for Bournemouth, Álvaro Rodríguez (penalty) 90+2' for Bournemouth. On expected goals it finished 2.88–0.37.
How the call on Bournemouth v Sturm Graz has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 57% / 25% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 55% / 25% / 20%: the biggest move is Bournemouth's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Bournemouth win55%▼ −2
- Draw25%=
- Sturm Graz win20%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.