Benfica vs Celtic UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Benfica 4-1 Celtic.
Before kick-off the model made it 72% Benfica, 17% draw, 11% Celtic — fair odds of 1.39, 5.88 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Benfica at 72%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Benfica vs Celtic
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. TrubinG
- 6A. BahD
- 44Tomás AraújoD
- 2C. LengletD
- 26S. DahlD
- 8F. AursnesM
- 36João PalhinhaM
- 11D. LukebakioM
- 10H. SudakovM
- 25G. PrestianniM
- 22J. DuránF
- 18L. BarreiroM
- 72A. CabralF
- 3A. CircatiD
- 30C. EcheverriM
- 34S. El KarouaniD
- 88Tiago FreitasM
- 33Gabriel IndioD
- 16ManuM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 1V. SinisaloG
- 51Colby DonovanD
- 47D. MurrayD
- 6A. TrustyD
- 63K. TierneyD
- 42C. McGregorM
- 22M. BaurM
- 11C. DuránM
- 18O. SørensenM
- 17S. TounektiM
- 9K. HøghF
- 49J. ForrestM
- 23H. HassanF
- 26S. JohnstoneG
- 65Liam KennedyM
- 3J. LotombaD
- 14L. McCowanM
- 8B. NygrenF
- 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
- 56A. RalstonD
Form going into Benfica vs Celtic
Benfica
UEFA Europa League
- W2-0away to AC Milan16 September 2026
Celtic
UEFA Europa League
- L1-3Ferencvarosi TC17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 12 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Benfica vs Celtic
- 20 November 2012Benfica 2–1 CelticUEFA Champions League
- 19 September 2012Celtic 0–0 BenficaUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Benfica and Celtic
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- G. Prestianni22
Celtic
GoalsAssists
- C. Durán30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Benfica beat Celtic 4–1. The model had made a win for Benfica its most likely outcome, at 72%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Jhon Durán (penalty) 5' for Benfica, Alexander Bah 23' for Benfica, Jhon Durán 36' for Benfica, Camilo Duran 63' for Celtic, Vangelis Pavlidis 89' for Benfica. On expected goals it finished 3.22–1.38.
How the call on Benfica v Celtic has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 65% / 20% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 72% / 17% / 11%: the biggest move is Benfica's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Benfica win72%▲ +7
- Draw17%▼ −3
- Celtic win11%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Benfica's most recent league matches and Celtic's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.