Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Celta Vigo 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Celta Vigo, 30% draw, 36% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Union St. Gilloise at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13I. RaduG
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 17Javi RuedaM
- 14Aleix FebasM
- 30H. BurcioM
- 5Sergio CarreiraM
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezF
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 19W. SwedbergF
- 6I. MoribaM
- 35G. MillerD
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 22Javi GalánD
- 28Andrés AntañónM
- 4A. FayeD
- 31Ángel ArcosF
- 10Iago AspasF
- 1A. BayındırG
- 12H. KoffiG
- 4N. ChibaniD
- 29M. SyllaD
- 55N. HavenaarD
- 27L. PatrisM
- 6K. Van de PerreM
- 8A. ZorganeM
- 11Guilherme Henriques da Silva CarvalhoM
- 38R. MofokengM
- 23B. ZeneliM
- 13K. RodríguezF
- 26R. SykesD
- 17R. SchoofsM
- 28D. OlaruM
- 25I. HurteventF
- 39youssef hamoutaharF
- 30R. FloruczF
- 21D. De RoeveD
- 1V. ChambaereG
- 20D. AquinoF
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise
Celta Vigo
UEFA Europa League
- W2-1away to Celtic22 October 2026
- L1-2Juventus15 October 2026
- L0-1away to Omonia Nicosia16 September 2026
Union St. Gilloise
UEFA Europa League
- W4-0Hapoel Beer Sheva22 October 2026
- D1-1Real Sociedad15 October 2026
- W3-0away to Plzen17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Union St. Gilloise won 2–1 at Celta Vigo. The model had made a win for Union St. Gilloise its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Pablo Durán Fernández 11' for Celta Vigo, Besfort Zeneli 35' for Union St. Gilloise, Besfort Zeneli 49' for Union St. Gilloise. On expected goals it finished 1.08–2.06.
How the call on Celta Vigo v Union St. Gilloise has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 28% / 31% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 34% / 30% / 36%: the biggest move is Celta Vigo's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Celta Vigo win34%▲ +6
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Union St. Gilloise win36%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.