18 October 2026, 21:30 UTC

Bahia vs Flamengo Serie A prediction & result

Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Referee: Wilton Sampaio
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Bahia 0-3 Flamengo.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Bahia, 28% draw, 41% Flamengo — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Flamengo at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bahia0%Draw1%Flamengo99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Erick Pulgar
Cristian Olivera
41'
48'
Léo Pereira
Jean Lucas
51'
64'
⚽Jorginho (pen)
🔁Nicolas Acevedoout: Caio Alexandre
65'
🔁Marcos Victorout: Román Gómez
65'
🔁Cristian Oliveraout: Ademir
65'
68'
🔁Jorge Carrascalout: Lucas Paquetá
73'
⚽Gonzalo Plataassist: Samuel Lino
🔁Rodrigo Nestorout: Éverton Ribeiro
75'
🔁erick pulgaout: Mateo Naín Sanabria
75'
75'
🔁Samuel Linoout: Joaquín Freitas
76'
🔁Pedroout: Bruno Henrique
78'
⚽Lucas Paquetáassist: Guillermo Varela
83'
🔁Léo Ortizout: Vitão
83'
🔁Erick Pulgarout: Nicolas De la Cruz
Marco Moreno
86'
Román Gómez
89'

Match stats — Bahia vs Flamengo

36%Possession64%
9Shots21
3On target15
4Corners14
0.59xG2.76

Goals against chances

Bahia0 from 0.59 xGless than the chances were worth
Flamengo3 from 2.76 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bahia 5-3-2
  • 1RonaldoG
  • 99C. OliveraD
  • 44Marcos VictorD
  • 33David DuarteD
  • 3Marco MorenoD
  • 46Luciano JubaD
  • 6Jean LucasM
  • 5N. AcevedoM
  • 11Rodrigo NestorM
  • 16Erick PulgaF
  • 9A. VélizF
Substitutes
  • 66Zé GuilhermeD
  • 12Willian JoséF
  • 23M. SanabriaF
  • 15M. AraújoM
  • 4KanuD
  • 17G. HerreraG
  • 31Roman GomezD
  • 10Éverton RibeiroM
  • 27EveraldoF
Coach: Rogério Ceni
Flamengo 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. RossiG
  • 2G. VarelaD
  • 3Léo OrtizD
  • 4Léo PereiraD
  • 22Emerson RoyalD
  • 21JorginhoM
  • 5E. PulgarM
  • 19G. PlataM
  • 15J. CarrascalM
  • 16Samuel LinoM
  • 9PedroF
Substitutes
  • 42AndrewG
  • 27Bruno HenriqueF
  • 26Alex SandroD
  • 49DyogoG
  • 18N. de la CruzM
  • 77Johnny GóesD
  • 61João Victor CunhaD
  • 11Lucas PaquetáM
  • 7Luiz AraújoF
Coach: Leonardo Jardim

Form going into Bahia vs Flamengo

Bahia

Serie A

  • W1-0Mirassol11 October 2026

Flamengo

Serie A

  • W1-0Fluminense11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Bahia34141195045+553
1Flamengo3423747129+4276

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bahia vs Flamengo

  • 19 April 2026Flamengo 2–0 BahiaSerie A
  • 5 October 2025Bahia 1–0 FlamengoSerie A
  • 11 May 2025Flamengo 1–0 BahiaSerie A
  • 5 October 2024Bahia 0–2 FlamengoSerie A
  • 13 September 2024Flamengo 1–0 BahiaCopa Do Brasil
  • 29 August 2024Bahia 0–1 FlamengoCopa Do Brasil

The full Bahia vs Flamengo record →

Leading scorers: Bahia and Flamengo

Bahia

GoalsAssists

  • Luciano Juba112

Flamengo

GoalsAssists

  • Pedro206
  • Samuel Lino129

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Flamengo won 3–0 at Bahia. The model had made a win for Flamengo its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jorginho (penalty) 64' for Flamengo, Gonzalo Plata 73' for Flamengo, Lucas Paquetá 78' for Flamengo. On expected goals it finished 0.59–2.76.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bahia a 26.1% chance to finish in the top four: 38.3% after a win, 23.1% after a draw, 17.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.4%, 8.7 points lower than before the match.

For Flamengo the question was the chance to win the league, 46.4% going in: 56.7% after a win, 43.1% after a draw, 35.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.7%, 10.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.