FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: FC Cincinnati 0-2 Columbus Crew.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% FC Cincinnati, 23% draw, 34% Columbus Crew — fair odds of 2.33, 4.35 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FC Cincinnati at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18R. CelentanoG
- 11S. GidiD
- 6J. MalatiniD
- 15T. HadebeD
- 23D. DouděraM
- 5O. NwobodoM
- 20P. BuchaM
- 3T. MalaciaM
- 10EvanderM
- 16T. BarlowF
- 9K. DenkeyF
- 22G. ValenzuelaM
- 27B. AnungaM
- 66E. EcheniqueF
- 4N. HagglundD
- 99A. JabbariF
- 13E. LouroG
- 17K. Mboma DemF
- 29Bryan Josías Ramírez LeónD
- 24K. SmithD
- 28P. SchulteG
- 31S. MoreiraD
- 25S. ZawadzkiD
- 18M. AmundsenD
- 2M. HerreraM
- 20André GomesM
- 16T. HabrouneM
- 11B. LennonM
- 10Brais MéndezF
- 33G. TapiaF
- 8S. RodríguezF
- 17S. BangouraM
- 3E. BaillyD
- 7D. ChambostM
- 26L. GiacconeM
- 1N. HagenG
- 77Josef MartínezF
- 23M. FarsiD
- 14A. SejdićM
- 19J. ThiaréF
Form going into FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew
FC Cincinnati
All competitions we cover
- L2-3New England Revolution14 October 2026
- W3-1away to Atlanta United FC10 October 2026
- L1-3away to CF Montreal26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Houston Dynamo20 September 2026
- D3-3Charlotte12 September 2026
Columbus Crew
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Charlotte14 October 2026
- L2-3away to Orlando City SC10 October 2026
- W2-1Inter Miami27 September 2026
- W2-0away to CF Montreal19 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls12 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Cincinnati scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Cincinnati conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Cincinnati had three goals or more.
- Columbus Crew scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Columbus Crew conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 67 | 75 | -8 | 46 |
| 7 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew
- 25 July 2026Columbus Crew 2–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 8 November 2025FC Cincinnati 2–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 2 November 2025Columbus Crew 4–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 27 October 2025FC Cincinnati 1–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 12 July 2025FC Cincinnati 2–4 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 17 May 2025Columbus Crew 1–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew
FC Cincinnati
GoalsAssists
- K. Denkey173
Columbus Crew
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 59 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Columbus Crew won 2–0 at FC Cincinnati. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Cincinnati at 43% and given a win for Columbus Crew 34%. The goals: Gonzalo Tapia 22' for Columbus Crew, Taha Habroune 54' for Columbus Crew. On expected goals it finished 1.98–0.36.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Cincinnati a 4.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 3.0% after a draw, 9.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.5%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.
For Columbus Crew the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 28.5% going in: 12.3% after a win, 28.8% after a draw, 39.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.3%, 16.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 41% / 25% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 23% / 34%: the biggest move is FC Cincinnati's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- FC Cincinnati win43%▲ +2
- Draw23%▼ −2
- Columbus Crew win34%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often FC Cincinnati's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Columbus Crew's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.