Fluminense vs Santos Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Fluminense 1-2 Santos.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Fluminense, 25% draw, 23% Santos — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Fluminense at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fluminense vs Santos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1FábioG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 4IgnacioD
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 6RenêD
- 35HérculesM
- 16NonatoM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 32L. AcostaM
- 30Y. SoteldoM
- 19R. CastilloF
- 23GugaD
- 22J. FreytesD
- 7HulkF
- 27MarceloG
- 29J. MillánD
- 94OtávioM
- 10PH GansoM
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 90K. SernaF
- 1DiógenesG
- 23RodineiD
- 4Lucas VeríssimoD
- 14Luan PeresD
- 22Á. BarrealD
- 8Gabriel BontempoM
- 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
- 11Philippe CoutinhoM
- 10NeymarM
- 7EvertonM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 18Igor ViniciusD
- 26João Paulo AnaniasD
- 34João PauloG
- 5João SchmidtM
- 30M. TercerosM
- 28C. OlivaM
- 38Rafael GonzagaD
- 32B. RollheiserF
- 33RonyF
Form going into Fluminense vs Santos
Fluminense
Serie A
- L0-1away to Flamengo11 October 2026
Santos
Serie A
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | +13 | 57 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Santos
- 19 April 2026Santos 2–3 FluminenseSerie A
- 31 August 2025Santos 0–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 13 April 2025Fluminense 1–0 SantosSerie A
- 29 November 2023Santos 0–3 FluminenseSerie A
- 29 July 2023Fluminense 1–0 SantosSerie A
- 1 August 2022Santos 2–2 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Santos
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa154
- Neymar83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santos won 2–1 at Fluminense. The model had leaned towards a win for Fluminense at 52% and given a win for Santos 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Rodrigo Castillo 4' for Fluminense, Gabriel Barbosa 49' for Santos, Philippe Coutinho 54' for Santos. On expected goals it finished 1.17–2.13.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fluminense a 73.1% chance to finish in the top four: 81.2% after a win, 65.9% after a draw, 59.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.8%, 13.3 points lower than before the match.
For Santos the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 1.6% going in: 3.8% after a win, 1.3% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.8%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Fluminense v Santos has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 52% / 25% / 23%: the biggest move is Fluminense's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Fluminense win52%▲ +7
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Santos win23%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.