18 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Gremio vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction & result

Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre
Referee: Joao Vitor Gobi
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Gremio 2-4 Cruzeiro.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Gremio, 28% draw, 36% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gremio at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gremio0%Draw1%Cruzeiro99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Carlos Vinícius (pen)
17'
23'
⚽Kaio Jorgeassist: Matheus Pereira
🔁Danilo Barbosa da Silvaout: Erick Noriega
36'
⚽Cristian Pavón
41'
48'
⚽Kaio Jorge
61'
⚽Kaio Jorgeassist: William
🔁Filip Krovinovićout: Martin Braithwaite
66'
66'
🔁Zé Lucasout: Matheus Henrique
67'
João Marcelo
71'
Matheus Pereira
Walter Kannemann
73'
Walter Kannemann
73'
Erick Noriega
74'
76'
Keny arroyo
79'
🔁Keny arroyoout: Wesley Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira
80'
⚽João Marceloassist: Gerson
🔁Cristian Pavónout: Tetê
90'
🔁Francis Amuzuout: José Enamorado
90'
90+2'
🔁Gersonout: Bruno Rodrigues
90+2'
🔁Kaio Jorgeout: Luciano Rodríguez
90+2'
🔁João Marceloout: Fabrício Bruno

Match stats — Gremio vs Cruzeiro

40%Possession60%
17Shots13
6On target6
8Corners9
2.07xG1.54

Goals against chances

Gremio2 from 2.07 xGabout what the chances were worth
Cruzeiro4 from 1.54 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gremio 4-2-3-1
  • 1WevertonG
  • 27Diego CaitoD
  • 6Gustavo MartinsD
  • 4W. KannemannD
  • 23MarlonD
  • 20M. VillasantiM
  • 15Danilo BarbosaM
  • 7C. PavónM
  • 10F. KrovinovićM
  • 9F. AmuzuM
  • 95Carlos ViníciusF
Substitutes
  • 3Wagner LeonardoD
  • 11TetêF
  • 22M. BraithwaiteF
  • 54Pedro GabrielD
  • 99J. EnamoradoF
  • 12Gabriel GrandoG
  • 18João PedroD
  • 17DodiM
  • 8E. NoriegaM
Coach: Renato Gaúcho
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
  • 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
  • 12WilliamD
  • 43João MarceloD
  • 34JonathanD
  • 25L. VillalbaD
  • 5Zé LucasM
  • 29L. RomeroM
  • 99K. ArroyoM
  • 10Matheus PereiraM
  • 8GersonM
  • 19Kaio JorgeF
Substitutes
  • 1CássioG
  • 9Bruno RodriguesF
  • 15Fabrício BrunoD
  • 23FágnerD
  • 2Kauã MoraesD
  • 16Lucas SilvaM
  • 11MarquinhosF
  • 7Matheus HenriqueM
  • 97L. RodríguezF
Coach: Artur Jorge

Form going into Gremio vs Cruzeiro

Gremio

Serie A

  • D1-1Internacional11 October 2026

Cruzeiro

Serie A

  • L2-4away to RB Bragantino13 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Gremio34910153847-937
3Cruzeiro34186105548+760

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gremio vs Cruzeiro

  • 12 July 2026Gremio 3–1 CruzeiroFriendlies Clubs
  • 18 April 2026Cruzeiro 2–0 GremioSerie A
  • 5 November 2025Gremio 0–1 CruzeiroSerie A
  • 13 July 2025Cruzeiro 4–1 GremioSerie A
  • 28 November 2024Cruzeiro 1–1 GremioSerie A
  • 10 July 2024Gremio 0–2 CruzeiroSerie A

The full Gremio vs Cruzeiro record →

Leading scorers: Gremio and Cruzeiro

Gremio

GoalsAssists

  • Carlos Vinícius111

Cruzeiro

GoalsAssists

  • Kaio Jorge142
  • Matheus Pereira97

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cruzeiro won 4–2 at Gremio. The goals: Carlos Vinícius (penalty) 17' for Gremio, Kaio Jorge 23' for Cruzeiro, Cristian Pavón 41' for Gremio, Kaio Jorge 48' for Cruzeiro, Kaio Jorge 61' for Cruzeiro, João Marcelo 80' for Cruzeiro. Sent off: Walter Kannemann (Gremio) 73'. On expected goals it finished 2.07–1.54.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gremio a 41.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 27.7% after a win, 41.7% after a draw, 54.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.2%, 12.4 points higher than before the match.

For Cruzeiro the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 23.3% going in: 32.6% after a win, 20.4% after a draw, 14.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.6%, 9.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Gremio v Cruzeiro has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 34% / 30% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 36% / 28% / 36%: the biggest move is Gremio's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Gremio win36%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Cruzeiro win36%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.