18 October 2026, 13:15 UTC

Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow Premier League prediction & result

VTB Arena, Moscow
Referee: Andrey Prokopov
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Dynamo 3-1 CSKA Moscow.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Dynamo, 27% draw, 25% CSKA Moscow — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dynamo at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dynamo97%Draw3%CSKA Moscow0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
Luciano Gondou
⚽Konstantin Tyukavinassist: Yaroslav Gladyshev
31'
•Andrey Lunev
34'
43'
⚽Ivan Oblyakov (pen)
Daniil Fomin
45'
67'
🔁Kirill Glebovout: Matheus Alves
🔁Arthur Gomesout: Maximiliano Gutierrez
68'
🔁Dmitriy Skopintsevout: Maksim Osipenko
69'
69'
🔁Luciano Gondouout: Maksim Voronov
🔁Yaroslav Gladyshevout: Viktor Okishor
76'
80'
🔁Ivan Oleynikovout: Imran Firov
🔁Konstantin Tyukavinout: Ivan Sergeev
81'
⚽Roberto Fernandezassist: Bitello
88'
Roberto Fernandez
90'
⚽Viktor Okishorassist: Ivan Sergeev
90+2'
Nicolas Marichal
90+4'

Match stats — Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow

51%Possession49%
13Shots12
5On target5
5Corners2
2.16xG1.91

Goals against chances

Dynamo3 from 2.16 xGmore than the chances were worth
CSKA Moscow1 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dynamo 4-2-3-1
  • 99A. LunevG
  • 2N. MarichalD
  • 6R. FernándezD
  • 57David RicardoD
  • 7D. SkopintsevD
  • 74D. FominM
  • 15D. GlebovM
  • 91Y. GladyshevM
  • 10BitelloM
  • 11Arthur GomesM
  • 70K. TyukavinF
Substitutes
  • 77J. CasimirF
  • 28M. GutiérrezF
  • 31I. LeshchukG
  • 60T. MarinkinM
  • 21A. MiranchukM
  • 88V. OkishorM
  • 55M. OsipenkoD
  • 1K. RasulovG
  • 33I. SergeevF
Coach: S. Schwarz
CSKA Moscow 5-3-2
  • 49V. ToropG
  • 21M. AzziD
  • 4João VictorD
  • 79M. ZeaD
  • 23Dzhamalutdin AbdulkadyrovD
  • 3D. KrugovoyD
  • 10I. OblyakovM
  • 31M. KislyakM
  • 19I. OleynikovM
  • 17K. GlebovF
  • 32L. GondouF
Substitutes
  • 39M. BoriskoG
  • 20Matija PopovicM
  • 11T. MusaevF
  • 2Matheus ReisD
  • 7Matheus AlvesM
  • 90M. LukinD
  • 18D. KozlovM
  • 37HenriqueM
  • 62I. FirovF
Coach: Dmitriy Igdisamov

Form going into Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow

Dynamo

Premier League

  • W1-0away to Rubin11 October 2026

CSKA Moscow

Premier League

  • W3-0Rodina Moskva11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Dynamo1410132313+1031
5CSKA Moscow147522316+726

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow

  • 18 July 2026Dynamo 5–2 CSKA MoscowFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 March 2026CSKA Moscow 1–4 DynamoPremier League
  • 6 February 2026CSKA Moscow 1–1 DynamoFriendlies Clubs
  • 17 August 2025Dynamo 1–3 CSKA MoscowPremier League
  • 16 April 2025Dynamo 0–0 CSKA MoscowCup
  • 6 April 2025CSKA Moscow 3–1 DynamoPremier League

Leading scorers: Dynamo and CSKA Moscow

Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • K. Tyukavin71
  • V. Okishor32

CSKA Moscow

GoalsAssists

  • I. Oblyakov71
  • I. Oleynikov34
  • K. Glebov31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dynamo beat CSKA Moscow 3–1. The model had made a win for Dynamo its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Konstantin Tyukavin 31' for Dynamo, Ivan Oblyakov (penalty) 43' for CSKA Moscow, Roberto Fernandez 88' for Dynamo, Viktor Okishor 90+2' for Dynamo. On expected goals it finished 2.16–1.91.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dynamo a 32.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 37.2% after a win, 28.0% after a draw, 25.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.2%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.

For CSKA Moscow the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 54.3% going in: 64.9% after a win, 55.5% after a draw, 49.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.3%, 5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Dynamo v CSKA Moscow has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Dynamo's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Dynamo win48%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. CSKA Moscow win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.