18 October 2026, 15:45 UTC

Spartak Moscow vs Rubin Premier League prediction & result

Lukoil Arena, Moscow
Referee: Anton Frolov
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Spartak Moscow 4-0 Rubin.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Spartak Moscow, 28% draw, 23% Rubin — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Spartak Moscow at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Spartak Moscow99%Draw1%Rubin0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Jakhongir Urozov
Manfred Ugalde
5'
⚽Pablo Solari
18'
Victor Parada
36'
⚽Manfred Ugaldeassist: Ruslan Litvinov
43'
45'
🔁Ulvi Babaevout: Nazmi Gripshi
🔁Victor Paradaout: Igor Dmitriev
63'
🔁Marquinhosout: Daniil Denisov
63'
🔁Manfred Ugaldeout: Mirlind Daku
64'
⚽Mirlind Dakuassist: Pablo Solari
65'
69'
🔁Jakhongir Urozovout: Egor Teslenko
69'
🔁Veldin Hodzaout: Ignacio Saavedra
69'
🔁Jacques Siweout: Ruslan Bezrukov
🔁Pablo Solariout: Nikita Massalyga
74'
79'
🔁Eddie Salcedoout: Daniil Motorin
🔁Esequiel Barcoout: Ivan Sorokin
83'
Ivan Sorokin
86'
⚽Mirlind Daku
90'

Match stats — Spartak Moscow vs Rubin

66%Possession34%
22Shots9
10On target1
8Corners1
3.39xG0.32

Goals against chances

Spartak Moscow4 from 3.39 xGmore than the chances were worth
Rubin0 from 0.32 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Spartak Moscow 4-1-4-1
  • 1I. PomazunG
  • 47R. ZobninD
  • 68R. LitvinovD
  • 6S. BabićD
  • 33Víctor ParadaD
  • 18N. UmyarovM
  • 7P. SolariM
  • 25D. PrutsevM
  • 5E. BarcoM
  • 10MarquinhosM
  • 9M. UgaldeF
Substitutes
  • 19M. DakuF
  • 97D. DenisovD
  • 4A. DjikuD
  • 27I. DmitrievM
  • 56A. DovbnyaG
  • 24Nikita MassalygaM
  • 62P. PolekhF
  • 17V. SausM
  • 40I. SorokinM
Coach: Carcedo
Rubin 5-4-1
  • 38E. StaverG
  • 12A. ArroyoD
  • 98N. LobovD
  • 5I. VujačićD
  • 13J. UrozovD
  • 51I. RozhkovD
  • 22V. HodžaM
  • 10E. SalcedoM
  • 6U. IwuM
  • 7U. BabaevM
  • 43J. SiweF
Substitutes
  • 2E. TeslenkoD
  • 14I. SaavedraM
  • 25A. NigmatullinG
  • 59D. N. MotorinF
  • 44D. KuznetsovM
  • 86N. KoretsG
  • 8B. JočićM
  • 18M. IgnatjevD
  • 27A. GritsaenkoD
Coach: Franc Artiga

Form going into Spartak Moscow vs Rubin

Spartak Moscow

Premier League

  • D1-1away to Krylia Sovetov10 October 2026

Rubin

Premier League

  • L0-1Dynamo11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Spartak Moscow149232711+1629
8Rubin144641418-418

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Spartak Moscow vs Rubin

  • 19 August 2026Rubin 1–1 Spartak MoscowCup
  • 8 July 2026Spartak Moscow 0–0 RubinFriendlies Clubs
  • 11 May 2026Spartak Moscow 2–1 RubinPremier League
  • 23 August 2025Rubin 0–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 9 March 2025Rubin 2–1 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 31 August 2024Spartak Moscow 1–0 RubinPremier League

Leading scorers: Spartak Moscow and Rubin

Spartak Moscow

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ugalde60
  • M. Daku51

Rubin

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Spartak Moscow beat Rubin 4–0. The model had made a win for Spartak Moscow its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Pablo Solari 18' for Spartak Moscow, Manfred Ugalde 43' for Spartak Moscow, Mirlind Daku 65' for Spartak Moscow, Mirlind Daku 90' for Spartak Moscow. On expected goals it finished 3.39–0.32.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Spartak Moscow a 62.2% chance to finish in the top four: 67.6% after a win, 59.3% after a draw, 53.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.6%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.

For Rubin the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 3.8% going in: 6.6% after a win, 3.7% after a draw, 2.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.1%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Spartak Moscow v Rubin has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 49% / 28% / 23%: the biggest move is Spartak Moscow's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Spartak Moscow win49%▲ +4
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Rubin win23%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.