18 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Kisvarda FC vs Ferencvarosi TC NB I prediction & result

Varkert Stadium, Kisvarda
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Kisvarda FC 1-1 Ferencvarosi TC.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Kisvarda FC, 29% draw, 47% Ferencvarosi TC — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ferencvarosi TC at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kisvarda FC3%Draw93%Ferencvarosi TC4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Soma Novothny (pen)
4'
⚽Bogdan Melnyk
32'
🔁Soma Novothnyout: Jasmin Mešanović
45'
🔁Christián Hercout: Teslim Abdulateef Balogun
45'
45'
🔁Krisztian Lisztesout: Bamidele Isa Yusuf
🔁Miroszláv Babjákout: Kevin Körmendi
57'
Bogdan Melnyk
66'
67'
🔁Jonathan Leviout: Veljko Birmančević
75'
⚽Callum O'Dowdaassist: Daniel Arzani
83'
🔁Daniel Arzaniout: Carlos Eduardo Lopes Cruz
Jasmin Mešanović
85'
88'
🔁Habib Maïgaout: Ádám Nagy
🔁Kevin Körmendiout: Hianga'a M'Bock
89'

Match stats — Kisvarda FC vs Ferencvarosi TC

36%Possession64%
5Shots28
2On target7
1Corners12
0.93xG2.25

Goals against chances

Kisvarda FC1 from 0.93 xGabout what the chances were worth
Ferencvarosi TC1 from 2.25 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kisvarda FC 4-1-4-1
  • 23I. PopovichG
  • 55K. NagyD
  • 42T. LippaiD
  • 25B. ŠerbečićD
  • 10D. SoltészD
  • 22A. YougaM
  • 29B. BíróM
  • 14B. MelnykM
  • 24C. HercM
  • 37Miroslav BabjakM
  • 86S. NovothnyF
Substitutes
  • 4M. ChlumeckýD
  • 18K. KörmendiM
  • 1M. KovácsG
  • 80H. MbockM
  • 27J. MešanovićF
  • 6Maxim OsztrovkaM
  • 70L. SzőrM
  • 99T. YordanovF
  • 21G. SzikszaiF
Coach: A. Supka
Ferencvarosi TC 4-2-3-1
  • 63Dániel István RadnótiG
  • 14A. OsváthD
  • 28T. RaemaekersD
  • 4M. GómezD
  • 47C. O'DowdaD
  • 80H. MaïgaM
  • 17M. CorbuM
  • 10J. LeviM
  • 16K. ZachariassenM
  • 15D. ArzaniM
  • 76K. LisztesF
Substitutes
  • 7V. BirmančevićF
  • 68Z. VargaF
  • 1Á. VargaG
  • 88P. RommensM
  • 54O. NagyD
  • 6Á. NagyM
  • 72Ádám MadarászM
  • 90D. DibuszG
  • 11B. YusufF
Coach: B. Borbely

Form going into Kisvarda FC vs Ferencvarosi TC

Kisvarda FC

NB I

  • D1-1away to Vasas10 October 2026

Ferencvarosi TC

NB I

  • D1-1Debreceni VSC10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Kisvarda FC132651215-312
2Ferencvarosi TC126512210+1223

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kisvarda FC vs Ferencvarosi TC

  • 22 March 2026Kisvarda FC 1–1 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
  • 7 December 2025Ferencvarosi TC 3–0 Kisvarda FCNB I
  • 4 December 2025Kisvarda FC 0–1 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
  • 20 April 2024Ferencvarosi TC 0–0 Kisvarda FCNB I
  • 3 February 2024Kisvarda FC 1–3 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
  • 24 September 2023Ferencvarosi TC 1–0 Kisvarda FCNB I

Leading scorers: Kisvarda FC and Ferencvarosi TC

Kisvarda FC

No player in NB I's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Ferencvarosi TC

GoalsAssists

  • B. Yusuf41
  • K. Zachariassen41
  • M. Corbu31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Kisvarda FC and Ferencvarosi TC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ferencvarosi TC at 47% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Bogdan Melnyk 32' for Kisvarda FC, Callum O'Dowda 75' for Ferencvarosi TC. On expected goals it finished 0.93–2.25.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kisvarda FC a 47.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 37.9% after a win, 46.6% after a draw, 51.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 46.6%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.

For Ferencvarosi TC the question was the chance to win the league, 36.3% going in: 40.4% after a win, 32.2% after a draw, 30.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 32.2%, 4.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TC has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 26% / 30% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 24% / 29% / 47%: the biggest move is Ferencvarosi TC's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Kisvarda FC win24%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Ferencvarosi TC win47%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.