18 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Zenit vs Akhmat Premier League prediction & result

Gazprom Arena, Saint Petersburg
Referee: Rafael Shafeev
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Zenit 3-2 Akhmat.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Zenit, 23% draw, 17% Akhmat — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zenit at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Turpal-Ali Ibishev
Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santos
22'
25'
⚽Lechi Sadulaevassist: Egas Cacintura
Gustavo Mantuan
30'
🔁 Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santosout: Jhon Jhon
45'
⚽Arsen Adamov (OG)
47'
57'
🔁Kirill Shchetininout: Maksim Samorodov
⚽Maksim Glushenkovassist: Artem Karpukas
62'
67'
🔁Georgiy Melkadzeout: Mohamed Konate
68'
🔁Turpal-Ali Ibishevout: Manuel Keliano
71'
Ismael Silva
72'
🔁Egas Cacinturaout: Aleksey Kasadzhikov
78'
Aleksey Kasadzhikov
🔁 Marcilio Florencio Mota Filhoout: Kevin Andrade
84'
86'
⚽Mohamed Konateassist: Miroslav Bogosavac
⚽Jhon Jhon
90'
🔁Maksim Glushenkovout: Roman Vega
90+3'
🔁Luiz Henriqueout: Felipe Augusto
90+3'
Denis Adamov
90+4'
Roman Vega
90+5'
Aleksandr Sobolev
90+6'

Match stats — Zenit vs Akhmat

57%Possession43%
14Shots10
5On target3
7Corners4
1.46xG0.62

Goals against chances

Zenit3 from 1.46 xGmore than the chances were worth
Akhmat2 from 0.62 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Zenit 4-2-3-1
  • 16D. AdamovG
  • 31Gustavo MantuanD
  • 33NinoD
  • 28N. AlipD
  • 3Douglas SantosD
  • 5W. BarriosM
  • 93A. KarpukasM
  • 11Luiz HenriqueM
  • 10M. GlushenkovM
  • 20Pedro HenriqueM
  • 7A. SobolevF
Substitutes
  • 25K. AndradeD
  • 21A. ErokhinM
  • 9Felipe AugustoF
  • 14Jhon JhonM
  • 15V. KaravaevD
  • 61D. KondakovM
  • 57B. MoskvichevG
  • 51V. ShilovF
  • 66R. VegaD
Coach: S. Semak
Akhmat 4-2-3-1
  • 1V. UlyanovG
  • 95A. AdamovD
  • 6K. SidibéD
  • 5K. CakeD
  • 8M. BogosavacD
  • 4T. IbishevM
  • 11Ismael Silva LimaM
  • 7L. SadulaevM
  • 17Egas CacinturaM
  • 10K. ShchetininM
  • 77G. MelkadzeF
Substitutes
  • 20M. SamorodovF
  • 71R. MitsaevG
  • 76E. MaksutiF
  • 13M. KonatéF
  • 42Manuel KelianoM
  • 97A. KasadzhikovF
  • 70A. GadzhievM
  • 81M. SidorovD
  • 54Kirill KistenevD
Coach: S. Cherchesov

Form going into Zenit vs Akhmat

Zenit

Premier League

  • W3-2away to FC Krasnodar10 October 2026

Akhmat

Premier League

  • D0-0Baltika11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Zenit1410133215+1731
12Akhmat143561619-314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zenit vs Akhmat

  • 26 April 2026Zenit 2–0 AkhmatPremier League
  • 17 September 2025Zenit 2–1 AkhmatCup
  • 9 August 2025Akhmat 1–0 ZenitPremier League
  • 30 July 2025Akhmat 1–2 ZenitCup
  • 24 May 2025Zenit 3–0 AkhmatPremier League
  • 27 November 2024Akhmat 1–2 ZenitCup

Leading scorers: Zenit and Akhmat

Zenit

GoalsAssists

  • M. Glushenkov105
  • A. Sobolev102

Akhmat

GoalsAssists

  • L. Sadulaev33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Zenit beat Akhmat 3–2. The model had made a win for Zenit its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Lechi Sadulaev 25' for Akhmat, Arsen Adamov (own goal) 47' for Zenit, Maksim Glushenkov 62' for Zenit, Mohamed Konate 86' for Akhmat, Jhon Jhon 90' for Zenit. On expected goals it finished 1.46–0.62.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zenit a 39.9% chance to finish top of the regular season: 43.3% after a win, 34.7% after a draw, 28.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.3%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

For Akhmat the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 14.0% going in: 6.6% after a win, 12.2% after a draw, 15.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.4%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Zenit v Akhmat has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 54% / 26% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 60% / 23% / 17%: the biggest move is Zenit's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Zenit win60%▲ +6
  2. Draw23%▼ −3
  3. Akhmat win17%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.