24 October 2026, 10:30 UTC

Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır FK 1. Lig prediction & result

17 Eylül Stadium, Balikesir
Referee: Yusuf Ziya Gunduz, Türkiye
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Bandırmaspor 1-2 Iğdır FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Bandırmaspor, 32% draw, 25% Iğdır FK — fair odds of 2.33, 3.13 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bandırmaspor at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bandırmaspor0%Draw5%Iğdır FK95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
Serdar Gürler
35'
Giovanni Crociata
Emirhan Ayhan
36'
42'
⚽Alim Öztürk (pen)
🔁Emirhan Ayhanout: Dame Bamba Seck
45'
⚽Gianni Brunoassist: Tosin Kehinde
49'
Dean Lico
57'
59'
🔁Alperen Selviout: Felix Ohene Afena-Gyan
59'
🔁Moustapha Camaraout: Leandro Bacuna
59'
🔁Serdar Gürlerout: Arda Öztürk
Kerem Dönertaş
62'
64'
•Leandro Bacuna
64'
Leandro Bacuna
66'
⚽Giovanni Crociata
🔁Dean Licoout: Amidou Badji
70'
🔁Dame Bamba Seckout: Recep Dilek
70'
Remi Mulumba
72'
76'
🔁Huseyin Karabeyout: Devran Senyurt
🔁Kerem Dönertaşout: Enes Cinemre
77'
🔁Gianni Brunoout: Muhammed Gümüşkaya
81'
84'
⚽Felix Ohene Afena-Gyanassist: Arda Öztürk
Ahmet Biler
86'
90+3'
🔁Arda Çolakout: Serkan Asan

Match stats — Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır FK

68%Possession32%
15Shots8
7On target6
6Corners3
1.47xG2

Goals against chances

Bandırmaspor1 from 1.47 xGabout what the chances were worth
Iğdır FK2 from 2.00 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bandırmaspor 4-1-4-1
  • 16A. AlkanG
  • 77H. BilgiçD
  • 14Y. KocatürkD
  • 34Enes AydınD
  • 3A. BilerD
  • 92R. MulumbaM
  • 17Emirhan AyhanM
  • 23K. DonertasM
  • 8D. LiçoM
  • 11T. KehindeM
  • 9G. BrunoF
Substitutes
  • 21E. ÖzbekM
  • 86B. BekaroğluD
  • 29A. BadjiF
  • 27Dame SeckF
  • 99F. BekleviçG
  • 90Recep Yalın DilekF
  • 10M. GümüşkayaM
  • 19Yasin MidilicD
  • 20E. ÇinemreM
Coach: Ertuğrul Arslan
Iğdır FK 4-2-3-1
  • 29J. SzumskiG
  • 39H. KarabeyD
  • 5A. ÖztürkD
  • 22A. SelviD
  • 28S. GönülD
  • 21D. ErdoğanM
  • 24G. CrociataM
  • 7M. CamaraM
  • 58G. KayaM
  • 17S. GürlerM
  • 9A. ÇolakF
Substitutes
  • 33F. Afena-GyanF
  • 61S. AsanD
  • 10L. BacunaM
  • 2B. MoğultayD
  • 1T. TepeG
  • 99Douglas TanqueF
  • 44L. CaliskanM
  • 19Ö. ÖzcanF
  • 4A. ÖztürkD
Coach: K. Kocak

Form going into Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır FK

Bandırmaspor

1. Lig

  • L1-2away to Bodrum FK17 October 2026
  • D1-1Sivasspor13 October 2026

Iğdır FK

1. Lig

  • W1-0Boluspor18 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Keçiörengücü14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Bandırmaspor143561717014
3Iğdır FK148421911+828

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır FK

  • 16 March 2026Bandırmaspor 0–0 Iğdır FK1. Lig
  • 3 November 2025Iğdır FK 1–1 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
  • 14 April 2025Bandırmaspor 1–1 Iğdır FK1. Lig
  • 7 December 2024Iğdır FK 0–1 Bandırmaspor1. Lig

Leading scorers: Bandırmaspor and Iğdır FK

Bandırmaspor

GoalsAssists

  • G. Bruno50

Iğdır FK

No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Iğdır FK won 2–1 at Bandırmaspor. The model had leaned towards a win for Bandırmaspor at 43% and given a win for Iğdır FK 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Gianni Bruno 49' for Bandırmaspor, Giovanni Crociata 66' for Iğdır FK, Felix Ohene Afena-Gyan 84' for Iğdır FK. Sent off: Leandro Bacuna (Iğdır FK) 64'. On expected goals it finished 1.47–2.00.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Iğdır FK a 7.4% chance to finish in the top two: 9.5% after a win, 7.1% after a draw, 6.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.5%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bandırmaspor v Iğdır FK has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 47% / 31% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 43% / 32% / 25%: the biggest move is Bandırmaspor's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Bandırmaspor win43%▼ −4
  2. Draw32%▲ +1
  3. Iğdır FK win25%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.