Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Sarıyer 0-2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Sarıyer, 30% draw, 30% Fatih Karagümrük — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sarıyer at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13I. ŠehićG
- 23Ü. ErgünD
- 24K. ArslanD
- 3J. AttamahD
- 5E. KorkmazoğluD
- 7B. AliciM
- 28H. YeşilyurtM
- 53A. Biyogo PokoM
- 10E. KaracaM
- 90E. EzeF
- 17D. DavasF
- 1F. AkyüzG
- 4E. DikmenD
- 14T. ErgülM
- 41F. GedikF
- 11E. KaradağF
- 35H. KayalıD
- 9B. KörF
- 8Marcos SilvaM
- 93M. ThiamF
- 1M. SilvestriG
- 25M. SarıkayaD
- 4D. BiraschiD
- 28A. ÇınarD
- 21Candan BaskaleD
- 19Y. OnogoM
- 20M. SiopisM
- 26Traore AhmedM
- 5E. AkbabaM
- 41J. EsenM
- 9C. TosunF
- 22R. CivelekM
- 14Marius Tresor DohM
- 24B. ErsoyM
- 7Baris KalayciF
- 33Ç. KurukalıpD
- 3A. NukanD
- 8D. ToközM
- 6R. YalçınM
- 11T. ÇukurF
Form going into Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük
Sarıyer
1. Lig
- D1-1away to Sivasspor17 October 2026
- L1-4Bodrum FK13 October 2026
Fatih Karagümrük
1. Lig
- L1-2Keçiörengücü19 October 2026
- L0-1away to Mardin 196915 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Sarıyer | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 | Fatih Karagümrük | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük
- 4 December 2024Fatih Karagümrük 3–0 SarıyerTürkiye Kupası
- 1 December 2021Fatih Karagümrük 2–0 SarıyerTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Sarıyer and Fatih Karagümrük
Sarıyer
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Fatih Karagümrük
GoalsAssists
- A. Pešić52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fatih Karagümrük won 2–0 at Sarıyer. The model had leaned towards a win for Sarıyer at 40% and given a win for Fatih Karagümrük 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ahmed Traore 28' for Fatih Karagümrük, Cenk Tosun (penalty) 60' for Fatih Karagümrük. On expected goals it finished 0.96–2.29.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sarıyer a 14.5% chance to finish in the bottom four: 10.0% after a win, 15.5% after a draw, 18.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.5%, 4 points higher than before the match.
For Fatih Karagümrük the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 11.5% going in: 7.3% after a win, 10.3% after a draw, 14.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.3%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sarıyer v Fatih Karagümrük has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 35% / 30% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 40% / 30% / 30%: the biggest move is Sarıyer's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Sarıyer win40%▲ +5
- Draw30%=
- Fatih Karagümrük win30%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.