24 October 2026, 10:30 UTC

Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Istanbul
Referee: Yucel Buyuk, Türkiye
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Ümraniyespor 4-0 Sivasspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Ümraniyespor, 31% draw, 30% Sivasspor — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ümraniyespor at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ümraniyespor99%Draw1%Sivasspor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
•Kamil Fidan
7'
Kamil Fidan
⚽Berat Yılmazassist: Serkan Göksu
27'
30'
M. Mohammed
45'
🔁Mehmet Feyzi Yildirimout: Clinton Duodu
⚽Alejandro Blancoassist: Berat Yılmaz
63'
⚽Tomislav Glumacassist: Santeri Hostikka
67'
68'
🔁Valon Ethemiout: Cihat Celik
68'
🔁Charilaos Charisisout: Emre Gökay
68'
🔁Rey Manajout: Ebrima Ceesay
🔁Santeri Hostikkaout: Toheeb Adeola Kosoko
72'
🔁Alejandro Blancoout: Melih Bostan
72'
🔁Serkan Göksuout: Muhammet Tunahan Tasci
72'
Toheeb Adeola Kosoko
77'
⚽Melih Bostanassist: Muhammet Tunahan Tasci
79'
84'
🔁Oguzhan Aksoyout: Salih Kavrazlı
🔁Cebio Soukouout: Atalay Babacan
84'
🔁Andrej Dokanovićout: Oğuzhan Aydoğan
84'
88'
Mert Celik
90'
İsmet Taşdemir
Tomislav Glumac
90+2'
90+2'
Clinton Duodu

Match stats — Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor

62%Possession38%
14Shots4
6On target1
7Corners0
1.82xG0.3

Goals against chances

Ümraniyespor4 from 1.82 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sivasspor0 from 0.30 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ümraniyespor 4-2-3-1
  • 35C. TopaloğluG
  • 58M. KartalD
  • 4M. EserD
  • 44T. GlumacD
  • 88E. GedikD
  • 8S. GöksuM
  • 10A. ĐokanovićM
  • 11Álex BlancoM
  • 17Berat YılmazM
  • 7S. HostikkaM
  • 27C. SoukouF
Substitutes
  • 20A. BabacanM
  • 9M. BostanF
  • 12Toheeb KosokoF
  • 13Ö. KöklüG
  • 77T. TaşçıF
  • 66A. YaşarD
  • 26B. ÇakırD
  • 53B. ÖksüzD
  • 16K. ŞenM
Coach: T. Albayrak
Sivasspor 4-1-4-1
  • 16Arda ErdusunG
  • 26M. YıldırımD
  • 4M. ÇelikD
  • 20M. MohammedD
  • 77Y. KefkirD
  • 8C. CharisisM
  • 11B. KapacakM
  • 66Oguzhan AksoyM
  • 6K. FidanM
  • 27V. EthemiM
  • 9R. ManajF
Substitutes
  • 90M. AlbayrakD
  • 1G. BakırbaşG
  • 91Osman BaşkuyuD
  • 30E. CeesayM
  • 99Yilmaz CinF
  • 17C. DuoduF
  • 19E. GökayF
  • 28S. KavrazlıF
  • 34T. TuzlacikD
Coach: Ismet Taşdemir

Form going into Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor

Ümraniyespor

1. Lig

  • W2-0away to Vanspor FK18 October 2026
  • D1-1Sarıyer9 October 2026

Sivasspor

1. Lig

  • D1-1Sarıyer17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Bandırmaspor13 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Ümraniyespor134541612+417
18Sivasspor142751723-613

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor

  • 15 March 2026Sivasspor 1–0 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
  • 1 November 2025Ümraniyespor 1–0 Sivasspor1. Lig
  • 26 July 2023Sivasspor 2–0 ÜmraniyesporFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 May 2023Ümraniyespor 4–1 SivassporSüper Lig
  • 12 November 2022Sivasspor 2–2 ÜmraniyesporSüper Lig
  • 18 April 2017Sivasspor 0–0 Ümraniyespor1. Lig

Leading scorers: Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor

Ümraniyespor

No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Sivasspor

GoalsAssists

  • R. Manaj102

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ümraniyespor beat Sivasspor 4–0. The model had made a win for Ümraniyespor its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Berat Yılmaz 27' for Ümraniyespor, Alejandro Blanco 63' for Ümraniyespor, Tomislav Glumac 67' for Ümraniyespor, Melih Bostan 79' for Ümraniyespor. Sent off: Kamil Fidan (Sivasspor) 7', Clinton Duodu (Sivasspor) 90+2'. On expected goals it finished 1.82–0.30.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ümraniyespor a 22.4% chance to finish in the bottom four: 17.6% after a win, 24.1% after a draw, 27.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.6%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.

For Sivasspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 11.3% going in: 7.1% after a win, 11.1% after a draw, 13.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.3%, 2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ümraniyespor v Sivasspor has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 39% / 31% / 30%: the biggest move is Sivasspor's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Ümraniyespor win39%▲ +1
  2. Draw31%▲ +1
  3. Sivasspor win30%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.