24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Muğlaspor vs İstanbulspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Mugla Ataturk Stadyumu
Referee: Burak Olcar, Türkiye
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Muğlaspor 5-0 İstanbulspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Muğlaspor, 25% draw, 22% İstanbulspor — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Muğlaspor at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Muğlaspor99%Draw1%İstanbulspor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Abdullah Dijlan Aydin
⚽Daniel Avramovskiassist: Ibrahim Sissoko
8'
•Ibrahim Sissoko
13'
Bilal Ceylan
18'
•Ali Kaan Guneren
44'
⚽Ibrahim Sissoko (pen)
45+1'
⚽İ. Furat
45+3'
🔁Buluthan Bulutout: Jurgen Çelhaka
45'
⚽Mamady·Diarraassist: Bilal Ceylan
48'
55'
🔁Ali Akmanout: Mustafa Sol
55'
🔁Ömer Faruk Duymazout: Ilian Iliev
⚽İ. Furatassist: Bilal Ceylan
59'
🔁Mamady·Diarraout: Poyraz Yildirim
62'
🔁Bilal Ceylanout: Korede Osundina
62'
64'
Ilian Iliev
64'
🔁Ozcan Sahanout: Michael Ologo
64'
🔁Alieu Chamout: Berk Ali Nizam
🔁İ. Furatout: O. Sol
72'
🔁Ali Kaan Gunerenout: B. Ekiz
81'
90'
🔁Elvin Mendyout: Mario Krstovski

Match stats — Muğlaspor vs İstanbulspor

37%Possession63%
12Shots12
6On target3
2Corners6
2.13xG1.06

Goals against chances

Muğlaspor5 from 2.13 xGmore than the chances were worth
İstanbulspor0 from 1.06 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Muğlaspor 4-2-3-1
  • 17E. KılıçarslanG
  • 22B. CeylanD
  • 88Yiğit FidanD
  • 15O. NahırcıD
  • 3A. BarakD
  • 23A. GünerenM
  • 20B. BulutM
  • 11M. DiarraM
  • 10D. AvramovskiM
  • 91İ. FuratM
  • 27I. SissokoF
Substitutes
  • 21J. ÇelhakaM
  • 53Alihan KazmazD
  • 35Batıhan HanoğluG
  • 30B. EkizM
  • 7D. CamajF
  • 5O. MaturD
  • 13K. OsundinaF
  • 48O. SolM
  • 99Y. UzunogluF
Coach: Y. Koşukavak
İstanbulspor 4-4-2
  • 1I. DoganG
  • 20Ö. ŞahanD
  • 12K. SönmezD
  • 89E. UzunhanD
  • 3Y. ÖzerD
  • 27M. FallM
  • 21D. AydınM
  • 15E. MendyM
  • 30Alieu ChamM
  • 52Ö. DuymazF
  • 81A. AkmanF
Substitutes
  • 28A. TutarG
  • 18Turan TuncerD
  • 9M. SolF
  • 5M. OlogoD
  • 11B. NızamF
  • 77M. KrstovskiF
  • 37Umut İslamoğluD
  • 10I. IlievM
  • 6I. DayakliM
Coach: Olcay Demir

Form going into Muğlaspor vs İstanbulspor

Muğlaspor

1. Lig

  • W4-3away to Manisa F.K.19 October 2026
  • L0-3Bursaspor15 October 2026

İstanbulspor

1. Lig

  • L0-2Antalyaspor18 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Batman Petrolspor14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Muğlaspor144641825-718
19İstanbulspor1422101233-218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Muğlaspor and İstanbulspor

Muğlaspor

GoalsAssists

  • M. Diarra41
  • Y. Uzunoglu41

İstanbulspor

GoalsAssists

  • Alieu Cham41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Muğlaspor beat İstanbulspor 5–0. The model had made a win for Muğlaspor its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Daniel Avramovski 8' for Muğlaspor, Ibrahim Sissoko (penalty) 45+1' for Muğlaspor, İ. Furat 45+3' for Muğlaspor, Mamady·Diarra 48' for Muğlaspor, İ. Furat 59' for Muğlaspor. On expected goals it finished 2.13–1.06.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Muğlaspor a 10.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 8.1% after a win, 12.4% after a draw, 15.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.1%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

For İstanbulspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 77.8% going in: 70.9% after a win, 77.8% after a draw, 80.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.5%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Muğlaspor v İstanbulspor has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 53% / 25% / 22%: the biggest move is Muğlaspor's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Muğlaspor win53%▲ +3
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. İstanbulspor win22%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.