7 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution Major League Soccer prediction & result

Exploria Stadium, Orlando
Referee: G. Gonzales
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Orlando City SC 1-0 New England Revolution.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Orlando City SC, 23% draw, 36% New England Revolution — fair odds of 2.44, 4.35 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Orlando City SC at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Orlando City SC95%Draw5%New England Revolution0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Braian Ojeda
45'
🔁Wilder Cartagenaout: Adrián Marín
45'
45'
🔁Ethan Kohlerout: Joshua Wynder
60'
🔁Dor Turgemanout: Alhassan Yusuf
60'
🔁Carles Gilout: Brooklyn Raines
🔁Eduard Atuestaout: Joran Gerbet
62'
🔁Marco Pašalićout: Daryl Dike
66'
75'
🔁Matt Polsterout: Diego Fagúndez
🔁Martin Ojedaout: Griffin Dorsey
82'
84'
🔁Jackson Yueillout: Marcos Zambrano Delgado
Maxime Crépeau
90+1'

Match stats — Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution

35%Possession65%
15Shots9
4On target3
5Corners8
1.2xG0.91

Goals against chances

Orlando City SC1 from 1.20 xGabout what the chances were worth
New England Revolution0 from 0.91 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Orlando City SC 4-4-2
  • 71M. CrépeauG
  • 19Z. TaifiD
  • 4D. BrekaloD
  • 16W. CartagenaD
  • 27Vinícius NogueiraD
  • 87Marco PasalicM
  • 8B. OjedaM
  • 20E. AtuestaM
  • 77I. AnguloM
  • 7A. GriezmannF
  • 10M. OjedaF
Substitutes
  • 9D. DikeF
  • 24G. DorseyD
  • 22Justin EllisF
  • 35Joran GerbetM
  • 5Luis OtávioM
  • 12Javier OteroG
  • 23Harvey SarajianF
  • 11TiagoF
  • 3Adrián MarínD
Coach: M. Perelman
New England Revolution 4-2-3-1
  • 30M. TurnerG
  • 12I. FeingoldD
  • 22E. KohlerD
  • 2M. FofanaD
  • 23W. SandsD
  • 8M. PolsterM
  • 14J. YueillM
  • 41L. LangoniM
  • 10Carles GilM
  • 16D. GazdagM
  • 99D. TurgemanF
Substitutes
  • 77D. FagundezM
  • 33D. ParisianG
  • 21B. RainesM
  • 66J. WynderD
  • 7G. YowF
  • 80A. YusufM
  • 17Marcos Zambrano-DelgadoF
  • 4T. BeasonD
  • 15C. BakerD
Coach: M. Mićović

Form going into Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution

Orlando City SC

Major League Soccer

  • L0-4away to Charlotte31 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Chicago Fire29 October 2026
  • D2-2New York City FC24 October 2026
  • W4-1DC United17 October 2026

New England Revolution

Major League Soccer

  • L1-2Inter Miami2 November 2026
  • W3-2New York Red Bulls28 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Philadelphia Union24 October 2026
  • W1-0Chicago Fire17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Orlando City SC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Orlando City SC had three goals or more.
  • Orlando City SC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • New England Revolution scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • New England Revolution won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • New England Revolution conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Orlando City SC34137146378-1546
3New England Revolution34184125547+858

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution

  • 19 September 2026New England Revolution 4–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 29 April 2026New England Revolution 3–4 Orlando City SCUS Open Cup
  • 19 July 2025New England Revolution 1–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 10 May 2025Orlando City SC 3–3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 14 September 2024Orlando City SC 3–0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 13 July 2024New England Revolution 1–3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Orlando City SC and New England Revolution

Orlando City SC

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ojeda164
  • A. Griezmann147

New England Revolution

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 55 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Orlando City SC beat New England Revolution 1–0. The model had made a win for Orlando City SC its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Braian Ojeda 45' for Orlando City SC. On expected goals it finished 1.20–0.91.

How the call on Orlando City SC v New England Revolution has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 43% / 23% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 23% / 36%: the biggest move is Orlando City SC's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Orlando City SC win41%▼ −2
  2. Draw23%=
  3. New England Revolution win36%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.