1 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Baník Ostrava vs Plzen Czech Liga prediction & result

Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Ostrava
Referee: Jan Vsetecka
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Baník Ostrava 0-4 Plzen.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Baník Ostrava, 25% draw, 52% Plzen — fair odds of 4.35, 4.00 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Plzen at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Baník Ostrava0%Draw1%Plzen99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
Filip Prebsl
Jiri Boula
30'
Filip Kubala
35'
48'
⚽Adam Gabrielassist: Amar Memić
56'
⚽Adam Gabrielassist: Amar Memić
57'
⚽Lukáš Červassist: Amar Memić
🔁Matus Kmetout: Rhodri Smith
61'
🔁Michal Frydrychout: Matej Chalus
62'
🔁Vit Skrkonout: Dantaye·Gilbert
62'
66'
🔁Prince Kwabena Aduout: Christopher Kabongo
66'
🔁Alexandr Sojkaout: Denis Višinský
66'
🔁Amar Memićout: Tomáš Ladra
67'
•Adam Gabriel
🔁Michal Kohútout: Aboubacar Traore
71'
🔁Filip Kubalaout: Vaclav Jurecka
72'
75'
🔁Merchas Doskiout: Cheick Souare
80'
⚽Tomáš Ladraassist: tobias paliscak
80'
•Tomáš Ladra
84'
🔁Adam Gabrielout: Denis Vavro

Match stats — Baník Ostrava vs Plzen

58%Possession42%
11Shots15
1On target8
7Corners5
0.48xG2.82

Goals against chances

Baník Ostrava0 from 0.48 xGabout what the chances were worth
Plzen4 from 2.82 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Baník Ostrava 3-4-2-1
  • 23M. JedličkaG
  • 17M. FrydrychD
  • 83R. NoghaD
  • 42J. MíčekD
  • 34A. BeweneM
  • 5J. BoulaM
  • 18D. PlankaM
  • 81M. KmeťM
  • 21M. KohútM
  • 28F. KubalaM
  • 22V. SkrkonF
Substitutes
  • 1V. BudinskýG
  • 37M. ChalušD
  • 95D. HolzerM
  • 15V. JurečkaF
  • 55Artúr MusákM
  • 3Rhodri SmithD
  • 8A. TraoréM
  • 19F. ŠanclM
  • 7D. GilbertM
Coach: R. Skuhravý
Plzen 3-4-3
  • 44F. WiegeleG
  • 2T. PališčákD
  • 40S. DwehD
  • 98F. PrebslD
  • 29A. GabrielM
  • 17P. HrošovskýM
  • 6L. ČervM
  • 14Merchas DoskiM
  • 12A. SojkaF
  • 80P. AduF
  • 99A. MemićF
Substitutes
  • 1D. ŤapajG
  • 11M. VydraF
  • 9D. VišinskýM
  • 3D. VavroD
  • 10M. ToureF
  • 5Karel SpáčilD
  • 19C. SouaréM
  • 36S. PirgićM
  • 18T. LadraF
Coach: R. Kováč

Form going into Baník Ostrava vs Plzen

Baník Ostrava

Czech Liga

  • D0-0Sparta Praha18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Bohemians 190510 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Slovácko19 September 2026

Plzen

Czech Liga

  • L1-2Pardubice25 October 2026
  • W3-2away to FK Jablonec18 October 2026
  • W3-0Mlada Boleslav10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Baník Ostrava134271023-1314
8Plzen145542922+720

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Baník Ostrava vs Plzen

  • 25 April 2026Baník Ostrava 0–1 PlzenCzech Liga
  • 26 October 2025Plzen 2–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 11 May 2025Plzen 1–2 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 16 March 2025Plzen 0–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 19 October 2024Baník Ostrava 1–3 PlzenCzech Liga
  • 18 May 2024Plzen 1–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Baník Ostrava and Plzen

Baník Ostrava

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Plzen

GoalsAssists

  • C. Kabongo50
  • A. Memić46

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Plzen won 4–0 at Baník Ostrava. The model had made a win for Plzen its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Adam Gabriel 48' for Plzen, Adam Gabriel 56' for Plzen, Lukáš Červ 57' for Plzen, Tomáš Ladra 80' for Plzen. On expected goals it finished 0.48–2.82.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Baník Ostrava a 31.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.2% after a win, 29.0% after a draw, 35.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.5%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.

For Plzen the question was the chance to finish in the top ten, 93.6% going in: 95.9% after a win, 92.5% after a draw, 89.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 95.9%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Baník Ostrava v Plzen has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 22% / 24% / 54% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 23% / 25% / 52%: the biggest move is Plzen's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Baník Ostrava win23%▲ +1
  2. Draw25%▲ +1
  3. Plzen win52%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.