1 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha Czech Liga prediction & result

Dolicek, Prague
Referee: Ondrej Pechanec
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Bohemians 1905 0-0 Sparta Praha.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Bohemians 1905, 27% draw, 50% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sparta Praha at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bohemians 19052%Draw92%Sparta Praha6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Petr Mirvald
39'
🔁Vojtech Smrzout: Samuel Obinaya
45'
61'
🔁Hugo Sochurekout: Andy Irving
61'
🔁Viktor Vitályosout: Jaroslav Zelený
🔁Jan Matoušekout: Ladislav Krobot
65'
69'
🔁Matej Jurasekout: Ebrima Singhateh
Petr Mirvald
74'
76'
Sivert Heggheim Mannsverk
77'
Patrik Vydra
78'
🔁Sivert Heggheim Mannsverkout: Matyáš Vojta
🔁Ladislav Almásiout: Benson Sakala
80'
Benson Sakala
80'
88'
Tobias Kvalvagnes Guddal
🔁Aleš Čermákout: David Heidenreich
90+1'
90+1'
Brian Priske Pedersen
90+3'
Ki-Jana Hoever

Match stats — Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha

35%Possession65%
4Shots14
0On target6
5Corners10
0.24xG3.18

Goals against chances

Bohemians 19050 from 0.24 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sparta Praha0 from 3.18 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bohemians 1905 3-4-1-2
  • 23T. FrühwaldG
  • 24M. HavelD
  • 27D. LischkaD
  • 3Matej KadlecD
  • 32P. MirvaldM
  • 47A. ČermákM
  • 42V. SmržM
  • 37D. JavorčekM
  • 16R. KvětM
  • 99L. AlmásiF
  • 10J. MatoušekF
Substitutes
  • 12M. ReichlG
  • 18D. ValaD
  • 15M. BandaD
  • 8D. HeidenreichD
  • 70Simon CernyM
  • 13V. ZemanF
  • 62Samuel ObinayaM
  • 6B. SakalaM
  • 19J. KovaříkM
Coach: J. Veselý
Sparta Praha 4-2-3-1
  • 44J. SurovčíkG
  • 25K. HoeverD
  • 22L. Mbe SohD
  • 6T. GuddalD
  • 15V. VitályosD
  • 20S. MannsverkM
  • 38H. SochurekM
  • 31M. JurásekM
  • 26P. VydraM
  • 7J. AlcócerM
  • 14J. Braut BrunesF
Substitutes
  • 21J. GrimaldoF
  • 47K. HegyiG
  • 18A. IrvingM
  • 3P. KadeřábekD
  • 28R. MacekM
  • 4J. MartinecD
  • 27E. SinghatehM
  • 2M. SuchomelD
  • 29M. VojtaF
Coach: Brian Priske

Form going into Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha

Bohemians 1905

Czech Liga

  • D2-2away to Zbrojovka Brno24 October 2026
  • W1-0Mlada Boleslav14 October 2026

Sparta Praha

Czech Liga

  • W5-1Slovácko25 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Baník Ostrava18 October 2026
  • W2-0Pardubice11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Bohemians 1905145541515020
4Sparta Praha147342614+1224

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha

  • 25 April 2026Bohemians 1905 2–0 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
  • 28 October 2025Sparta Praha 2–1 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
  • 7 December 2024Sparta Praha 1–0 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
  • 10 August 2024Bohemians 1905 1–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
  • 13 April 2024Bohemians 1905 1–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
  • 4 November 2023Sparta Praha 2–0 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga

Leading scorers: Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha

Bohemians 1905

GoalsAssists

  • A. Čermák52

Sparta Praha

GoalsAssists

  • J. Braut Brunes62
  • J. Mercado51
  • J. Alcócer41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sparta Praha at 50% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. Sent off: Petr Mirvald (Bohemians 1905) 74'. On expected goals it finished 0.24–3.18.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bohemians 1905 a 68.8% chance to finish in the top ten: 79.9% after a win, 69.7% after a draw, 64.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 69.7%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.

For Sparta Praha the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 5.0% going in: 6.3% after a win, 3.6% after a draw, 2.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 3.6%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bohemians 1905 v Sparta Praha has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 24% / 28% / 48% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 23% / 27% / 50%: the biggest move is Sparta Praha's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Bohemians 1905 win23%▼ −1
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Sparta Praha win50%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.