1 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Ferencvarosi TC vs Paks NB I prediction & result

Groupama Arena, Budapest
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Ferencvarosi TC 2-0 Paks.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Ferencvarosi TC, 23% draw, 23% Paks — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ferencvarosi TC at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ferencvarosi TC96%Draw4%Paks0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

49'
Bence Lenzsér
⚽Bamidele Isa Yusufassist: marius corbu
59'
60'
🔁Balázs Baloghout: M. Simuț
60'
🔁milan gyorfiout: Balázs Wiesner
Bamidele Isa Yusuf
69'
🔁Bamidele Isa Yusufout: Lenny Joseph
71'
🔁Ádám Madarászout: Matúš Bero
71'
80'
🔁Kevin Horvathout: Zsolt Haraszti
80'
🔁Milan Petőout: Gergo Gyurkits
🔁Habib Maïgaout: Ádám Nagy
80'
🔁Veljko Birmančevićout: Jonathan Levi
89'
⚽Kristoffer Zachariassen
90+4'

Match stats — Ferencvarosi TC vs Paks

60%Possession40%
28Shots7
10On target1
10Corners3
3.38xG0.52

Goals against chances

Ferencvarosi TC2 from 3.38 xGless than the chances were worth
Paks0 from 0.52 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ferencvarosi TC 4-2-3-1
  • 90D. DibuszG
  • 14A. OsváthD
  • 28T. RaemaekersD
  • 4M. GómezD
  • 20CaduD
  • 80H. MaïgaM
  • 72Ádám MadarászM
  • 16K. ZachariassenM
  • 17M. CorbuM
  • 7V. BirmančevićM
  • 11B. YusufF
Substitutes
  • 22M. BeroM
  • 15D. ArzaniF
  • 75L. JosephF
  • 8N. KeïtaM
  • 10J. LeviF
  • 6Á. NagyM
  • 54O. NagyD
  • 70I. PappoeM
  • 88P. RommensM
Coach: B. Borbely
Paks 5-4-1
  • 28M. GyetvánG
  • 6M. GyőrfiD
  • 24B. LenzsérD
  • 2Á. KinyikD
  • 5B. VécseiD
  • 14E. SilyeD
  • 17M. PetőM
  • 21K. PappM
  • 8B. BaloghM
  • 19K. HorváthM
  • 7J. SzalaiF
Substitutes
  • 3Á. DebreceniD
  • 18G. GyurkitsM
  • 9J. HahnF
  • 10Z. HarasztiF
  • 1Á. KovácsikG
  • 30J. SzabóD
  • 29B. TóthF
  • 12G. VasD
  • 22J. WindeckerM
Coach: G. Bognár

Form going into Ferencvarosi TC vs Paks

Ferencvarosi TC

NB I

  • W5-0MTK Budapest25 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Kisvarda FC18 October 2026
  • D1-1Debreceni VSC10 October 2026

Paks

NB I

  • W2-0away to Vasas25 October 2026
  • L1-2Gyori ETO FC17 October 2026
  • W3-0MTK Budapest10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Ferencvarosi TC126512210+1223
5Paks136252422+220

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ferencvarosi TC vs Paks

  • 26 July 2026Paks 4–2 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
  • 26 April 2026Ferencvarosi TC 2–0 PaksNB I
  • 1 February 2026Paks 0–1 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
  • 5 October 2025Ferencvarosi TC 2–2 PaksNB I
  • 14 May 2025Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 PaksMagyar Kupa
  • 10 May 2025Paks 2–3 Ferencvarosi TCNB I

Leading scorers: Ferencvarosi TC and Paks

Ferencvarosi TC

GoalsAssists

  • B. Yusuf41
  • K. Zachariassen41
  • M. Corbu31

Paks

GoalsAssists

  • M. Pető61
  • J. Szalai61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ferencvarosi TC beat Paks 2–0. The model had made a win for Ferencvarosi TC its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Bamidele Isa Yusuf 59' for Ferencvarosi TC, Kristoffer Zachariassen 90+4' for Ferencvarosi TC. On expected goals it finished 3.38–0.52.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ferencvarosi TC a 45.5% chance to win the league: 50.9% after a win, 43.4% after a draw, 34.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.9%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.

For Paks the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 40.5% going in: 51.9% after a win, 41.1% after a draw, 35.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.0%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ferencvarosi TC v Paks has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 52% / 24% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 54% / 23% / 23%: the biggest move is Ferencvarosi TC's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Ferencvarosi TC win54%▲ +2
  2. Draw23%▼ −1
  3. Paks win23%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.