18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha Czech Liga prediction & result

Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Ostrava
Referee: Dalibor Cerny
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Baník Ostrava 0-0 Sparta Praha.

Before kick-off the model made it 18% Baník Ostrava, 23% draw, 59% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 5.56, 4.35 and 1.69.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sparta Praha at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Baník Ostrava3%Draw91%Sparta Praha6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
Ki-Jana Hoever
Raymond Roan Nogha
33'
43'
John Mercado
45'
🔁Ki-Jana Hoeverout: Pavel Kadeřábek
55'
Roman Macek
56'
🔁Patrik Vydraout: Ebrima Singhateh
56'
🔁Jonatan Braut Brunesout: Matyáš Vojta
🔁Michal Kohútout: Dantaye·Gilbert
64'
64'
🔁Roman Macekout: Sivert Heggheim Mannsverk
🔁Aboubacar Traoreout: Rhodri Smith
67'
74'
🔁Josimar Alcocerout: Matej Jurasek
75'
Ebrima Singhateh
🔁Abdullahi Beweneout: Matus Kmet
79'
🔁Filip Kubalaout: Vaclav Jurecka
79'
🔁David Plankaout: Artur Musak
79'
90'
Martin Suchomel

Match stats — Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha

48%Possession52%
12Shots16
3On target4
4Corners3
0.99xG1.64

Goals against chances

Baník Ostrava0 from 0.99 xGless than the chances were worth
Sparta Praha0 from 1.64 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Baník Ostrava 3-4-2-1
  • 23M. JedličkaG
  • 17M. FrydrychD
  • 83R. NoghaD
  • 42J. MíčekD
  • 34A. BeweneM
  • 5J. BoulaM
  • 18D. PlankaM
  • 8A. TraoréM
  • 21M. KohútM
  • 28F. KubalaM
  • 22V. SkrkonF
Substitutes
  • 1V. BudinskýG
  • 37M. ChalušD
  • 7D. GilbertM
  • 95D. HolzerM
  • 15V. JurečkaF
  • 81M. KmeťD
  • 55Artúr MusákM
  • 19F. ŠanclM
  • 3Rhodri SmithD
Coach: R. Skuhravý
Sparta Praha 4-2-3-1
  • 44J. SurovčíkG
  • 25K. HoeverD
  • 6T. GuddalD
  • 30J. ZelenýD
  • 2M. SuchomelD
  • 38H. SochurekM
  • 28R. MacekM
  • 17J. MercadoM
  • 26P. VydraM
  • 7J. AlcócerM
  • 14J. Braut BrunesF
Substitutes
  • 47K. HegyiG
  • 66S. ZajacG
  • 29M. VojtaF
  • 15V. VitályosD
  • 27E. SinghatehM
  • 4J. MartinecD
  • 20S. MannsverkM
  • 3P. KadeřábekD
  • 31M. JurásekM
Coach: Brian Priske

Form going into Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha

Baník Ostrava

Czech Liga

  • L0-1away to Bohemians 190510 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Slovácko19 September 2026

Sparta Praha

Czech Liga

  • W2-0Pardubice11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Baník Ostrava134271023-1314
4Sparta Praha147342614+1224

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha

  • 28 February 2026Sparta Praha 5–2 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 27 September 2025Baník Ostrava 0–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
  • 18 May 2025Baník Ostrava 3–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
  • 5 April 2025Baník Ostrava 1–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
  • 2 November 2024Sparta Praha 1–3 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 14 May 2024Sparta Praha 2–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha

Baník Ostrava

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Sparta Praha

GoalsAssists

  • J. Braut Brunes62
  • J. Mercado51
  • J. Alcócer41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sparta Praha at 59% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.99–1.64.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Baník Ostrava a 46.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 34.0% after a win, 44.1% after a draw, 50.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 44.1%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.

For Sparta Praha the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 85.4% going in: 88.1% after a win, 83.8% after a draw, 78.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 83.8%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Baník Ostrava v Sparta Praha has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 22% / 26% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 18% / 23% / 59%: the biggest move is Sparta Praha's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Baník Ostrava win18%▼ −4
  2. Draw23%▼ −3
  3. Sparta Praha win59%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.