18 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Slovácko vs Zbrojovka Brno Czech Liga prediction & result

Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Uherske Hradiste
Referee: Vojtech Opocensky
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Slovácko 1-2 Zbrojovka Brno.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Slovácko, 29% draw, 35% Zbrojovka Brno — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Slovácko at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Slovácko0%Draw1%Zbrojovka Brno99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Gigli Ndefeout: Martin Svidersky
7'
37'
•Antonín Vaníček
40'
⚽Daniel Vasulin (pen)
Jocelin Behiratche
59'
🔁Patrik Blahutout: Jan Fiala
65'
🔁Pavel Juroskaout: Tomas Kral
65'
71'
🔁Antonín Vaníčekout: Tadeáš Vachoušek
71'
🔁Daniel Vasulinout: Jakub Janetzky
75'
⚽Tadeáš Vachoušekassist: Jaromír Zmrhal
🔁Andrej Stojchevskiout: Milan Rundić
76'
🔁Lukas Vorlickyout: Alan Marinelli
76'
76'
🔁Patrik Cavosout: Štěpán Langer
86'
🔁Lucky Ezehout: Bienvenue Kanakimana
86'
🔁Jaromír Zmrhalout: Tomas Brecka
⚽Jocelin Behiratcheassist: Marek Havlík
90+4'

Match stats — Slovácko vs Zbrojovka Brno

54%Possession46%
17Shots10
4On target5
8Corners5
0.65xG2.87

Goals against chances

Slovácko1 from 0.65 xGabout what the chances were worth
Zbrojovka Brno2 from 2.87 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Slovácko 3-4-2-1
  • 29M. HečaG
  • 21Š. SlončíkD
  • 22J. BehiratcheD
  • 4A. StojchevskiD
  • 2Gigli NdefeM
  • 26T. KostadinovM
  • 10M. TrávníkM
  • 15P. BlahútM
  • 77P. JuroškaM
  • 72L. VorlickýM
  • 20M. HavlíkF
Substitutes
  • 3M. RundićD
  • 27A. DolžnikovM
  • 16G. SossehM
  • 18J. FialaF
  • 34P. HalouskaG
  • 17F. HruskaM
  • 6M. ŠviderskýM
  • 19Tomáš KrálD
  • 9A. MarinelliF
Coach: J. Jelinek
Zbrojovka Brno 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. HrdinaG
  • 39J. KlímaD
  • 26F. VedralD
  • 38J. PokornýD
  • 44A. DantéD
  • 77L. EzehM
  • 8P. ČavošM
  • 6Lukáš PenxaM
  • 17J. ZmrhalM
  • 10A. VaníčekM
  • 15D. VašulínF
Substitutes
  • 4E. HunálD
  • 68J. JanetzkýM
  • 3Kauan Carneiro KakaD
  • 19B. KanakimanaF
  • 7Š. LangerM
  • 78O. ProdelalG
  • 11M. RymarenkoF
  • 23P. ŠevčíkM
  • 79S. AfolabiM
Coach: M. Svědík

Form going into Slovácko vs Zbrojovka Brno

Slovácko

Czech Liga

  • W2-0away to Slovan Liberec11 October 2026

Zbrojovka Brno

Czech Liga

  • L0-1FK Jablonec10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Slovácko142481326-1310
10Zbrojovka Brno146261722-520

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Slovácko vs Zbrojovka Brno

  • 29 June 2024Zbrojovka Brno 1–0 SlováckoFriendlies Clubs
  • 30 April 2023Slovácko 1–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
  • 30 July 2022Zbrojovka Brno 2–2 SlováckoCzech Liga
  • 21 April 2021Slovácko 4–2 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
  • 16 December 2020Zbrojovka Brno 2–1 SlováckoCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Slovácko and Zbrojovka Brno

Slovácko

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Zbrojovka Brno

GoalsAssists

  • D. Vašulín50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Zbrojovka Brno won 2–1 at Slovácko. The model had leaned towards a win for Slovácko at 36% and given a win for Zbrojovka Brno 35%. The goals: Daniel Vasulin (penalty) 40' for Zbrojovka Brno, Tadeáš Vachoušek 75' for Zbrojovka Brno, Jocelin Behiratche 90+4' for Slovácko. On expected goals it finished 0.65–2.87.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Slovácko a 48.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 40.3% after a win, 49.3% after a draw, 55.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.9%, 7.8 points higher than before the match.

For Zbrojovka Brno the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 9.9% going in: 12.7% after a win, 9.4% after a draw, 6.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.7%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Slovácko v Zbrojovka Brno has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 32% / 30% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Slovácko's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Slovácko win36%▲ +4
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Zbrojovka Brno win35%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.